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Look, the first post shows a chart with a yellow line and a big red X, that's ridiculous, the chart asserts you're solely basing your judgement on resistance and nothing else..
The post immediately above, you go into detail, using a sensible argument on the pro's & cons of QE, it's potential effect on inflation in the aftermath of soaring softs.
That said, I still want to know - is FB still a "BUY"?
Somebody probably made a similar prediction in 1972 with the S&P 500 at 122.
as far as this chart goes why don't you have the years extending past 95. Wasn't convenient to point out for the more than a decade now if your not fast money your dead money.
Now while i am not in midneo's camp nor do i think that world ends next Monday I think we can at least approach this subject with some objectivity.
The top of all the markets is here "SPY 141 Level Is Your Final Top"
Good evening trade king I hope you guys have had a good weekend and we all had great time investing but the mother of all tops is here. I repeat we have reach the final top of the markets for years to come. What is going to happen in a few years will change the economic field of all our world and don't think the financial system and hedge firms have not been preparing for this. They been hedging in the derivative markets to go against the markets.
You never learn.
Does this mean Facebook is no longer a "BUY"?
Then how come this chart is still going down?
Simple trades if you can you can explain this chart to us. In my understanding the $CPC is the put to call ratio and and Tree hamster if you could help us with you're understanding in option it will be great. According to what I know the Higher the dispersion from the CPC index and the markets signals a reversal Simple trades. The reason I'm calling the top here is for various reasons from Simple trades technically speaking i will tell you this markets markers are controlling the markets like ever before. Maybe I'm wrong here but when the VIX this low effects the IV of options making Puts and Calls are a sell or a less value. Now the reason I'm Calling the top here is the Dispersion from the markets internals to the overall markets. Take a look at IYT which according to the Dow theory quote me wrong but usually dow transportation measure the overall strength of the markets reason why I call it one of markets internals along with the Russell. I also use Market Flow indexes to measure the amount of captial inflow from the dark pool using market deviation from the SP futures and the SPY ETF. As well use Reflective mirror theory using Core internals measure against the ETF's or stocks with higher beta inside the markets.
And all i can tell you that according to what i see Someone in the gov and china are not telling the whole story. I do believe the numbers are getting twicked here and their but then again that is just me. All I can see is that market internals are going with the markets. I can tell you unless we get a form of QE very soon this markets are going to be happy, SLV and gold don't give any indication of that. As well When USO trend higher the markets trend lower is the final indication to know when the correction is here. I'm not sure when the real selling is going to begin but i can assure the 141 level is the final top of the markets. Keep note that every week after options expiration week we trend to move with the day trading action. So keep that in watch. And bakes the great and incubus you nothing to contribute then just keep out of it.
Use copper index to measure what is happening to china also take note the Rise on Commodities such as Rice, Corn, Uso.. Which will affect the consumer and a QE wil only effect the prices more then helping us just giving you a heads up anyone that is waiting for QE the 3 one will kill the markets and i do expected later this year before the fiscal cliff comes because all I can tell you when the bond bubble pops. The housing and the whole stock markets is going go with it. The future is already set and done.
We've got to work on your grammar.Midneo said: .... bakes the great and incubus you nothing to contribute then just keep out of it.
Look, the first post shows a chart with a yellow line and a big red X, that's ridiculous, the chart asserts you're solely basing your judgement on resistance and nothing else..
The post immediately above, you go into detail, using a sensible argument on the pro's & cons of QE, it's potential effect on inflation in the aftermath of soaring softs.
That said, I still want to know - is FB still a "BUY"?
Midneo, the chart shows that the 20 day SMA of theCBOE Options Total Put/Call ratio has been moving down since June and is still moving down. What it means that traders are buying more Calls than Puts and that is bullish. This 20 day SMA normally moves the opposite direction to the market, $SPX for example. When they start to move in the same direction then you can start to worry about the market top. Just look at the chart the past couple of years or even this year. The 20 day SMA turned up in February, way before May, when the market moved down.Midneo said: Simple trades if you can you can explain this chart to us.
My take...
Several things need to be addressed as we assess the current levels in the market.
First, the levels.
6/9 - 6/23/2008 - We traded in a range of 137.50 - 142.15 (ish)
4/2/2012 - 142.20 - 2012 high and also the high of this bull run out of the abyss
6/4/2012 - 127.14 - 2012 low and also break even on the year
8/10/2012 - 140.90 - The area of debate.
A discussion on these levels.
First, I am no Economist nor do i pretend to be one. My assessment of the market is purely technical because I am a believer that at any given time price is correct and when there are discrepancies the market efficiently corrects. ( Im not looking for a debate on that point of view. you your money your way, this way works for me). When the market corrects, there are usually signals.
So, the levels traded on the time period of 6/9 - 6/23/2008 are extremely important because these levels were the final leg up before the market gave up the ghost in 08. Not coincidentally the top of that range 142.ish marks the 2012 high. Haven't heard much talk of this resistance line discussed anywhere.
So we traded up to 142.20 on 4/2/2012 and then turned around for no reason, as far as i can tell, besides that resistance line.
Then on 5/1/2012 we gave another go at it and turned on a bad jobs number which brings us to 6/4/2012 which marks the low of the year and break even on the S&P for 2012.
Since 6/4 we have had the most tradeable uptrend i have ever seen with clear buy and sell signals all the way up until this week. Since 6/4 the market is up something like 8%. So now that we've climbed all the back since 6/4 everyone is a believer. All I've heard this week on TV is that the market climbs a wall of worry. Well i say yea it does and you missed it. And when a bunch of suits sit in front of their computers and see that they missed it you get what we got this week. INDECISION. So now what we have to decide is, is this a period of consolidation or distribution.
My believe is that we do not see a 10% pull back followed by newer highs as has been the case for the past three summers. We either rocket to all times highs from here and we'll say that 6/3 - now was the sell off. Or we see a 50% retracement from the 09 lows. You guys can play hedge fund with your own capital I'll continue to take my cues from the SPX. And right now it is saying be careful
Several things need to be addressed as we assess the current levels in the market.
First, the levels.
6/9 - 6/23/2008 - We traded in a range of 137.50 - 142.15 (ish)
4/2/2012 - 142.20 - 2012 high and also the high of this bull run out of the abyss
6/4/2012 - 127.14 - 2012 low and also break even on the year
8/10/2012 - 140.90 - The area of debate.
A discussion on these levels.
First, I am no Economist nor do i pretend to be one. My assessment of the market is purely technical because I am a believer that at any given time price is correct and when there are discrepancies the market efficiently corrects. ( Im not looking for a debate on that point of view. you your money your way, this way works for me). When the market corrects, there are usually signals.
So, the levels traded on the time period of 6/9 - 6/23/2008 are extremely important because these levels were the final leg up before the market gave up the ghost in 08. Not coincidentally the top of that range 142.ish marks the 2012 high. Haven't heard much talk of this resistance line discussed anywhere.
So we traded up to 142.20 on 4/2/2012 and then turned around for no reason, as far as i can tell, besides that resistance line.
Then on 5/1/2012 we gave another go at it and turned on a bad jobs number which brings us to 6/4/2012 which marks the low of the year and break even on the S&P for 2012.
Since 6/4 we have had the most tradeable uptrend i have ever seen with clear buy and sell signals all the way up until this week. Since 6/4 the market is up something like 8%. So now that we've climbed all the back since 6/4 everyone is a believer. All I've heard this week on TV is that the market climbs a wall of worry. Well i say yea it does and you missed it. And when a bunch of suits sit in front of their computers and see that they missed it you get what we got this week. INDECISION. So now what we have to decide is, is this a period of consolidation or distribution.
My believe is that we do not see a 10% pull back followed by newer highs as has been the case for the past three summers. We either rocket to all times highs from here and we'll say that 6/3 - now was the sell off. Or we see a 50% retracement from the 09 lows. You guys can play hedge fund with your own capital I'll continue to take my cues from the SPX. And right now it is saying be careful
I think the reason was the "collision" between the 20,2 the 50,2 and the 200,2 Bollinger Bands.NASDAQsavages said:
So we traded up to 142.20 on 4/2/2012 and then turned around for no reason, as far as i can tell, besides that resistance line.
Agreed. Do I have to remind you every month that charts are a history of where stocks have been and not where they are going? Supply and demand is what moves stocks up or down and many many many factors can affect supply and demand.BAKES THE GREAT said:
You never learn.
Somebody probably made a similar prediction in 1972 with the S&P 500 at 122.
Bingo, we have a winner.TampaJake said:
.... Supply and demand is what moves stocks up or down and many many many factors can affect supply and demand.
Here's my take.
1. Incubus you should buy Facebook, but not one else should. Me personally, I'm rotating out of Facebook and into Manchester United.
2. Midneo, don't get all "Armageddon's Here!" Come on, big daddy. Keep your nerve. Stiff upper lip and all that. Don't think the bond market is going to blow up. Ask yourself why JGBs are still trading well. Remember, the money has to go somewhere, even in a panic.
3. Simple, the biggest scare comes when you aren't expecting it, so your chart is consistent with the end of the world at any given moment. Of course, many have predicted the end of the world. But a nice tell for the upside.
4. Savage Man, your post makes good sense. That resistance level is strong, but today's close was also a bit of a tell.
Boys, the direction from here is higher, but it fits and starts as the shorts pile in and get shaken out. 1450, my friends, then I'd have to move into Midneo's camp, although only for the stock market. The Great Morons of Capital Hill will shake things up after the election.
1. Incubus you should buy Facebook, but not one else should. Me personally, I'm rotating out of Facebook and into Manchester United.
2. Midneo, don't get all "Armageddon's Here!" Come on, big daddy. Keep your nerve. Stiff upper lip and all that. Don't think the bond market is going to blow up. Ask yourself why JGBs are still trading well. Remember, the money has to go somewhere, even in a panic.
3. Simple, the biggest scare comes when you aren't expecting it, so your chart is consistent with the end of the world at any given moment. Of course, many have predicted the end of the world. But a nice tell for the upside.
4. Savage Man, your post makes good sense. That resistance level is strong, but today's close was also a bit of a tell.
Boys, the direction from here is higher, but it fits and starts as the shorts pile in and get shaken out. 1450, my friends, then I'd have to move into Midneo's camp, although only for the stock market. The Great Morons of Capital Hill will shake things up after the election.
Speaking of "highly lucrative" IPO's.
ZH blogged about this earlier, interesting divergence between the IPO index (red) and the SPX (green) -
ZH blogged about this earlier, interesting divergence between the IPO index (red) and the SPX (green) -
Well one of the biggest factors of supply and demand has to be expectations of the future.. That what we're trying to do. BINGOincubus said:
Bingo, we have a winner.TampaJake said:
.... Supply and demand is what moves stocks up or down and many many many factors can affect supply and demand.
as far as this chart goes why don't you have the years extending past 95. Wasn't convenient to point out for the more than a decade now if your not fast money your dead money.
Now while i am not in midneo's camp nor do i think that world ends next Monday I think we can at least approach this subject with some objectivity.
A drought that diminishes ag supply won't be affected by resistance on a chart.
A surge in jobs won't respect the Bollinger band in a down-trend in the SPX.
Support/resistance may act as a secondary short term driver of direction in an environment of uncertainty, or slow news cycle, but the chart ultimately only reflects the tangible world, not the other way around.
A head and shoulders pattern doesn't define macro-economics.
A surge in jobs won't respect the Bollinger band in a down-trend in the SPX.
Support/resistance may act as a secondary short term driver of direction in an environment of uncertainty, or slow news cycle, but the chart ultimately only reflects the tangible world, not the other way around.
A head and shoulders pattern doesn't define macro-economics.
Compare 1965-1972 in the first chart to the chart of 2006-2012 and you can see some similarities.
to this chart of 2006-2012
Quite a few similarities - then see the big picture of 1950 to 2012 below:
A prediction of a top in 1972 would have not been a good call. Charts are based on the past and do not predict the future. That is my point.
to this chart of 2006-2012
Quite a few similarities - then see the big picture of 1950 to 2012 below:
A prediction of a top in 1972 would have not been a good call. Charts are based on the past and do not predict the future. That is my point.
TJ, If we're at the start of the next major secular bull, how do we know?
Relative to the period you referenced, how do we know we're not at the top of a range like 1966, 1969, 1973, 1977 or 1981?
You're strictly looking at charts without referencing what influences them.
My take, look at the cause of the current problem, a crisis brought on by derivatives based on consumer debt.
Consumer debt is still extremely high, most accredited economists say that's the root problem, tack on the impending sequester that could kill as many as 2 million jobs - let's just say I keep a good bit of dry powder handy at all times.
The one thing Midneo's right on, sad but true, Fed intervention is possibly the only thing that will give this market a boost.
I also won't debate MP's guesstimate on SPX 1450 - but I will wager that the market will be lower than it is now within the next year or two.
The only thing that would change my mind is a serious reversal of fiscal & trade policies that helped us get here....the odds of that are slim and none any time soon.
Relative to the period you referenced, how do we know we're not at the top of a range like 1966, 1969, 1973, 1977 or 1981?
You're strictly looking at charts without referencing what influences them.
My take, look at the cause of the current problem, a crisis brought on by derivatives based on consumer debt.
Consumer debt is still extremely high, most accredited economists say that's the root problem, tack on the impending sequester that could kill as many as 2 million jobs - let's just say I keep a good bit of dry powder handy at all times.
The one thing Midneo's right on, sad but true, Fed intervention is possibly the only thing that will give this market a boost.
I also won't debate MP's guesstimate on SPX 1450 - but I will wager that the market will be lower than it is now within the next year or two.
The only thing that would change my mind is a serious reversal of fiscal & trade policies that helped us get here....the odds of that are slim and none any time soon.
Will The Stock Market Be Stalled Until 2020?
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