Recession has started?

Posted by SimpleTrades on July 29, 2012 (03:54PM)

"If I could go out overnight and magically double the bank accounts of every single American, would we all be twice as wealthy?  No, because there would be twice as many dollars now chasing the same amount of goods and services.  The price of those goods and services would soon rise dramatically to reflect this new reality."

"Economists will debate when this new recession officially "began" just like they do with every recession, but it doesn't take a genius to figure out what is happening to our economy right now."

http://www.bigtrends.com/trading-education/17-reasons-why-the-economy-may-be-heading-into-a-recession/

Posted by incubus on July 29, 2012 (04:40PM)

Marriner Eccles Senate testimony, 1933 -

" Before effective action can be taken to stop the devastating effects of the depression, it must be recognised that the breakdown of our present economic system is due to the failure of our political and financial leadership to intelligently deal with the money problem. ....

...  Our problem, then, becomes one purely of distribution. This can only be brought about by providing purchasing power sufficiently adequate to enable the people to obtain the consumption goods which we, as a nation, are able to produce. The economic system can serve no other purpose and expect to survive.  "

Posted by Bayou Steve on July 29, 2012 (04:58PM)

That is really too deep for me as you know however Deep Purple had it right and their best song is like the bell tolls for us:

We all came out to Montereax,
On the Lake Geneva shoreline.
To make records with a mobile,
We didn't have much time.
But Frank Zappa and the Mothers,
Were at the best place around,
But some stupid with a flare gun, (Barney Frank)
Burned the place to the ground.
Smoke on the water and fire in the sky.
Smoke on the water...

They burned down the gambling house, (Wall Street)
It died with an awful sound.
Funky Claude was running in and out, (ie Bernanke)
Pulling kids out the ground. (Bankers)
When it all was over,
We had to find another place.
But Swiss time was running out,
It seemed that we would lose the race.
Smoke on the water and fire in the sky.
Smoke on the water...

We ended up at the Grand Hotel.
It was empty cold and bare.
But with the Rolling truck Stones thing just outside,
Making our music there.
With a few red lights, a few old beds,
We made a place to sweat. (Tradeking)
No matter what we get out of this,
I know I know we'll never forget. (Obama's rule)
Smoke on the water and fire in the sky.
Smoke on the water...

Posted by Bayou Steve on July 29, 2012 (05:11PM)

In other words, like my favorite musician sang, "The fit is about to hit the shan".

Posted by Patches O'Houlihan on July 29, 2012 (06:18PM)

SimpleTrades said: "If I could go out overnight and magically double the bank accounts of every single American, would we all be twice as wealthy?  No, because there would be twice as many dollars now chasing the same amount of goods and services.  The price of those goods and services would soon rise dramatically to reflect this new reality."

"Economists will debate when this new recession officially "began" just like they do with every recession, but it doesn't take a genius to figure out what is happening to our economy right now."

http://www.bigtrends.com/trading-education/17-reasons-why-the-economy-may-be-heading-into-a-recession/

With the pathetic growth rates from this so-called recovery, particularly given that the recession was deep, it's fair to debate whether in substance we've even really had a recovery.

Posted by Market Pawn on July 29, 2012 (08:27PM)

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444840104577553551718500764.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection

Let's not forget that the Scrumus Maximus (The Big Scrum) has yet to begin in Washington.  They actually have to fix the impending tax and spending issues known as the Fiscal Cliff.  How will economic activity increase between now and then when the issues in the linked WSJ article are quite clear now?

Posted by incubus on July 29, 2012 (08:41PM)

Let the negotiations begin...

"I'll trade you 100,000 hungry, homeless seniors for a billionaire's 4rth mansion in the Hamptons"

Posted by treeHamster on July 29, 2012 (08:57PM)

If you look at the unemployment since it topped at a little over 10%, you'll see that a pattern might have been started about a year and a half ago. Since unemployment started seriously dropping last September, I'd have to say that it wasn't due to QE because that was only announced near the end of the month (I doubt people would shove a TON of people into jobs just a week after QE gets announced as the entire job rec process normally takes 1-2 months for all but the lowest paid jobs). So I won't say we have entered a new recession or not until we see the payroll data for August and September. If it starts to follow the trend of last summer, then I'd say we are doing ok for the time being (not that the econ or fiscal policies in place will do any good in the long term). If payroll doesn't pick up and unemployment doesn't start to fall off again (if it stays flat or starts to rise), then I'd say we might be hitting a new level of disparity as the worst point might be over but the worst period is not yet. By that I mean the most painful part is over but the longest period of pain might just have started.

Posted by SimpleTrades on August 05, 2012 (03:46PM)

“I think the recession started in the second quarter and will run about a year,” he said. He predicts a decline in GDP of 3.5% from peak to trough “because I’m not looking for a financial crisis...

All the consumer, housing, and government debt piled up over the last three decades will be a dead weight on the economy for five to seven years, Shilling believes, until we’re able to work it down to a more manageable level...

The debt problem is so deep that it overshadows everything, and neither politicians nor central banks have the tools to deal with it effectively, he said..."



http://www.marketwatch.com/story/shilling-new-recession-has-begun-2012-08-03?pagenumber=1



Posted by Market Pawn on August 05, 2012 (04:06PM)

SimpleTrades said: All the consumer, housing, and government debt piled up over the last three decades will be a dead weight on the economy for five to seven years, Shilling believes, until we’re able to work it down to a more manageable level...



 Five to seven years.  Earth to Schilling, the debt pile is still increasing.  Please add 25 years.

Posted by incubus on August 05, 2012 (06:15PM)

SimpleTrades said: ...All the consumer, housing, and government debt piled up over the last three decades will be a dead weight on the economy for five to seven years, Shilling believes, until we’re able to work it down to a more manageable level...

The debt problem is so deep that it overshadows everything, and neither politicians nor central banks have the tools to deal with it effectively, he said..."

Funny, I just referred to this debt in my "two charts" thread as the extraction of wealth from the middle class into the hands of Banksters who pay a 15% tax rate on it.

Atlas didn't shrug, he walked all over us like insects.

Posted by Patches O'Houlihan on August 06, 2012 (12:25PM)

"Banksters".... LOL.  And you call me a "whiner".

Outstanding.

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