Some time ago I created a forum topic called... "At what point does QE, Twist, and 0% interest have 0 Effect". In that forum MarketPawn wrote...
Otter, I believe you are correct to suspect diminishing returns. If we look at the S & P since the crisis began, there are three distinct trading bottoms. March 2009, Summer 2010 and Autumn 2011. All three bottoms are marked by Fed action: QE, QE2 and Twist. In the latter two the market does not rally until the low is tested three times. These are the QE2 bottom in 2010 and the Twist bottom in 2011. Trough to peak off the 2009 low is an 83% rally. Trough to peak off the 2010 low is a 33% rally. Trough to peak off the 2011 low is a 25% rally.
So, now we have companies starting the layoff announcements, re-stating earnings and projections, yet we rise again on Friday the 13th of all days; led by financials and have restored hope in the market of the Feds coming to the rescue.... China paying more for labor, but failing to gain in GDP all seen as positive signs....
So, my question now relates to the following....
1). How much of QE3 is now baked into the SP price from the low of 1280 in June... Or rephrased is 1280 the trough... We've tested 1360 7 times since June.. and now crossed the 50 mda... All the time waiting for QE3...
2).Does Merkel's hardened position that any attempt to
share burdens in Europe -- such as jointly issued euro bonds or
common banking bodies -- must first be met with greater
cooperation and a handover of some sovereignty to Brussels.
3). Will Uncle Ben's testimony before Congress this week imply a negative or a positive result in the markets...
4). At what point will QE3's positive effects end?
Follow posts
In Houston gas was at 2.97 last Friday. Today 3.19
I want to open a futures account just to short WTI to death.
What is this PAVLOV that keeps getting brought up?
Bernanke speaking: "No Hopium for you!!!"
The ROI with $50K in equipment or franchise purchases, is substantially greater than the market returns..with one major caveat, it takes actual work.
Actively trading, done profitably, takes a lot of work. And is the purest form of capitalism. In fact it is one of the most entrepreneurial things i can think of. It has all of the elements of starting and running a business. Probably because it is a business.
I risk my own capital.
Make calculated decisions as to how that capital would be best deployed.
Buy things and sell them back at a mark up.
Do paper work at the end of the day.
Make a lot of money.
Pay taxes.
If anyone could just come into the market and get rich, everyone would.
It take a real smart person, and a lot perseverance to make it here.
Before we bash me as to how i am a lazy kid who needs to do manual labor. It should be noted here that as well as being a full time trader, i am a CNC machinist in a non AC shop in the HOUSTON TEXAS heat. I don't work there for the money (I try make at least the same amount as my pay check from trading, its really cool when it happens). I work there because I would like to start my own CNC shop one day, but that a whole 'nother matter.
bottom line: trading is a business and takes a lot of work.
i don't feel like having a my body hurts more than yours, or a i almost die more than you do contest, because I don't define what I do by those things. I love waking up in the morning, going to work, putting up big trades, and learning. I'll hate people who try to advance their life in the pursuit of a higher standard of living with you if it makes you feel better, but I'm still going to try and be one of those people everyday. Because unlike you I refuse to except the lie that I as human only worth what I deny myself. And this belief that some how your pedestal is higher than everyone elses because its smaller than anyone elses. One day ill win one of the exchanges Inky. One day.....
So, QE3 is worth how much and for how long....
Displaying all 16 forum posts
It "feels" to me that QE3 is baked in. It's talked about at every non-positive turn. I think there is more risk of disappointment if it doesn't come then there would be positive impact of it's enactment.
Seems to me there is a lot less "earnings" in this earnings season. And how did Brent get back above $100. Pavlov has done his work here.
Yes, this is really a wonder. I simply cannot believe it.Market Pawn said: And how did Brent get back above $100.
In Houston gas was at 2.97 last Friday. Today 3.19
I want to open a futures account just to short WTI to death.
What is this PAVLOV that keeps getting brought up?
you give the market qe long enough and eventually it begins to anticipate the reward, in this case that reward is not going to come at these valuationsNASDAQsavages said:
Yes, this is really a wonder. I simply cannot believe it.Market Pawn said: And how did Brent get back above $100.
In Houston gas was at 2.97 last Friday. Today 3.19
I want to open a futures account just to short WTI to death.
What is this PAVLOV that keeps getting brought up?
I coined the term "Pavlov", relating to the way the market moves in predictive patterns like - "the Monday effect", "the January effect", "Head and shoulders pattern", "Summer selloff", then once enough traders hop on anticipating the move, it moves contrarily.
My assertion is that the market is controlled/manipulated by the biggest players, TBTF prop desks & HFT alg's. - JPM's "Whale" being an excellent example, a group of smaller traders caught on and joined forces to stick it to JPM, led by Boaz Weinstein.
It's long known that the "old" market would soar, led by large funds & traders, lure in the retail traders, then flop.
With the advent of HFT, dark pools, the CFMA etc - it's gotten much easier to influence moves in equities both up and down.
My assertion is that the market is controlled/manipulated by the biggest players, TBTF prop desks & HFT alg's. - JPM's "Whale" being an excellent example, a group of smaller traders caught on and joined forces to stick it to JPM, led by Boaz Weinstein.
It's long known that the "old" market would soar, led by large funds & traders, lure in the retail traders, then flop.
With the advent of HFT, dark pools, the CFMA etc - it's gotten much easier to influence moves in equities both up and down.
You might Google "Pavlov's Dog" to find the original antecedent.NASDAQsavages said:
What is this PAVLOV that keeps getting brought up?Market Pawn said: And how did Brent get back above $100.
Bernanke speaking: "No Hopium for you!!!"
Actually we might as well use the term properly. Pavlov was a 19th cent. Russian who was the first (who is noted) to describe the “stimulus/response” reflex. If I remember the experiment correctly, he rang a bell before feeding his dog. He noticed that the dog would salivate, in anticipation of being fed. He then noticed that when he rang the bell, the dog would still salivate, even when he no longer fed the dog after ringing the bell. The point being, he concluded that he had ‘taught’ the dog to salivate in response to the bell.
Your use, Inky, would describe the situation, where the dog eventually ‘wises up’, that the food is no longer coming. Skinner doesn’t allow for this, because it requires us to discuss the dog’s inner life, i.e., thinking.
So we are up on no QE? how does that happen
MP, I was the one who conducted the bell/dog experiments, I just opted to call it "Pavlov".
Of might attest, I'm likely eligible for the "no bell" prize.
Of might attest, I'm likely eligible for the "no bell" prize.
Yuk yuk. Since you're so smart, please start a thread with a new, no-lose investment strategy.incubus said: MP, I was the one who conducted the bell/dog experiments, I just opted to call it "Pavlov".
Of might attest, I'm likely eligible for the "no bell" prize.
Get yer money off the market, put it into a small service related business.Market Pawn said:
Yuk yuk. Since you're so smart, please start a thread with a new, no-lose investment strategy.incubus said: MP, I was the one who conducted the bell/dog experiments, I just opted to call it "Pavlov".
Of might attest, I'm likely eligible for the "no bell" prize.
The ROI with $50K in equipment or franchise purchases, is substantially greater than the market returns..with one major caveat, it takes actual work.
Inky,incubus said:
Get yer money off the market, put it into a small service related business.
The ROI with $50K in equipment or franchise purchases, is substantially greater than the market returns..with one major caveat, it takes actual work.
Actively trading, done profitably, takes a lot of work. And is the purest form of capitalism. In fact it is one of the most entrepreneurial things i can think of. It has all of the elements of starting and running a business. Probably because it is a business.
I risk my own capital.
Make calculated decisions as to how that capital would be best deployed.
Buy things and sell them back at a mark up.
Do paper work at the end of the day.
Make a lot of money.
Pay taxes.
If anyone could just come into the market and get rich, everyone would.
It take a real smart person, and a lot perseverance to make it here.
Before we bash me as to how i am a lazy kid who needs to do manual labor. It should be noted here that as well as being a full time trader, i am a CNC machinist in a non AC shop in the HOUSTON TEXAS heat. I don't work there for the money (I try make at least the same amount as my pay check from trading, its really cool when it happens). I work there because I would like to start my own CNC shop one day, but that a whole 'nother matter.
bottom line: trading is a business and takes a lot of work.
Nice resume, define "work",
If you'd feel silly explaining it to a steel worker who's been breaking his back after a 12 hr day or a miner who sweats working in hazardous conditions & goes home with aching muscles/joints, you should give serious thought to the concept.
Everyone wants to do the "smart" work, everyone wants to be rock stars.
If you'd feel silly explaining it to a steel worker who's been breaking his back after a 12 hr day or a miner who sweats working in hazardous conditions & goes home with aching muscles/joints, you should give serious thought to the concept.
Everyone wants to do the "smart" work, everyone wants to be rock stars.
QE 1, 2, 3, whatever, is just money printing and a hidden tax on productive Americans. Even more insidious than a non-hidden tax. I can't fathom what the Fed thinks it can do to grow an economy that has essentially zero reason to grow.The Otter Way said: Some time ago I created a forum topic called... "At what point does QE, Twist, and 0% interest have 0 Effect". In that forum MarketPawn wrote...
Otter, I believe you are correct to suspect diminishing returns. If we look at the S & P since the crisis began, there are three distinct trading bottoms. March 2009, Summer 2010 and Autumn 2011. All three bottoms are marked by Fed action: QE, QE2 and Twist. In the latter two the market does not rally until the low is tested three times. These are the QE2 bottom in 2010 and the Twist bottom in 2011. Trough to peak off the 2009 low is an 83% rally. Trough to peak off the 2010 low is a 33% rally. Trough to peak off the 2011 low is a 25% rally.
So, now we have companies starting the layoff announcements, re-stating earnings and projections, yet we rise again on Friday the 13th of all days; led by financials and have restored hope in the market of the Feds coming to the rescue.... China paying more for labor, but failing to gain in GDP all seen as positive signs....
So, my question now relates to the following....
1). How much of QE3 is now baked into the SP price from the low of 1280 in June... Or rephrased is 1280 the trough... We've tested 1360 7 times since June.. and now crossed the 50 mda... All the time waiting for QE3...
2).Does Merkel's hardened position that any attempt to share burdens in Europe -- such as jointly issued euro bonds or common banking bodies -- must first be met with greater cooperation and a handover of some sovereignty to Brussels.
3). Will Uncle Ben's testimony before Congress this week imply a negative or a positive result in the markets...
4). At what point will QE3's positive effects end?
incubus said: Nice resume, define "work",
If you'd feel silly explaining it to a steel worker who's been breaking his back after a 12 hr day or a miner who sweats working in hazardous conditions & goes home with aching muscles/joints, you should give serious thought to the concept.
Everyone wants to do the "smart" work, everyone wants to be rock stars.
i don't feel like having a my body hurts more than yours, or a i almost die more than you do contest, because I don't define what I do by those things. I love waking up in the morning, going to work, putting up big trades, and learning. I'll hate people who try to advance their life in the pursuit of a higher standard of living with you if it makes you feel better, but I'm still going to try and be one of those people everyday. Because unlike you I refuse to except the lie that I as human only worth what I deny myself. And this belief that some how your pedestal is higher than everyone elses because its smaller than anyone elses. One day ill win one of the exchanges Inky. One day.....
Displaying all 16 forum posts
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