Let's talk about Ford [F]

Posted by eSHkidd on July 13, 2012 (02:26AM)

What are everybody's opinions on Ford?

Lots more buys than sells from traders on TradeKing recently. They're also one of the most widely held stocks here.

IMO The stock is severely underpriced, they've got a P/E ratio of 2!, $9 shares and they're earning $4.50.

On top of that, since the recession they've begun to make some of the most top quality cars in their price range and is one of the THE leaders in fuel efficiency. Upcoming All electric Focus, and ramping up EcoBoost production, with a new 1.0 litre engine, and all these ecoboosts are going to have very HIGH fuel economy.

What seems to be holding the stock price down is obviously the Euro-crisis. They have strong ties there. But with still such high profits, it's hard to see why it's THIS low.

They also have a lot of debt, but this is because they are embarking on a huge expansion phase. Opening plants, hiring more employees, ramping up production from the U.S. and especially in China.

Unfortunately, technical analysis on the site shows on a Descending Continuation Triangle, long term bearish, that estimates a future price of $7. I just don't see how they could possibly get this low.

I'm betting on them long-term bullish, with an estimated price of $16 in a year or two and when the Euro situation gets better.

Everyone's thoughts on them?

Posted by SunnyOne on July 13, 2012 (09:09AM)

I think the debt is more of the issue than anything.  There's not much reason to be buying companies that have such significant debt. 

Posted by Market Pawn on July 13, 2012 (09:26AM)

eSHkidd said:
IMO The stock is severely underpriced, they've got a P/E ratio of 2!, $9 shares and they're earning $4.50.

Everyone's thoughts on them?

 eSHkidd, I like F and think Alan Mullally is one of the best CEO's out there.  There is one glaring flaw in your analysis that I'd just like to point out.  When you see a PE that seems a little out of whack, it's important to open the income statement and try to understand why.  In the case of Ford, you will find on their 2011 income statement a one time tax benefit of $11B.  Not sure what it's relating to, but that would be in the annual report for sure.  

So what's the easiest way to factor such one-time items out?  Just look at the company's EBITDA ratio (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization).  Roughly speaking, the operating earnings.  If Ford's case, that's 9.52.  Neither cheap nor expensive.

I do like Ford, but I don't think now is the time to buy it.  If the economy continues to slow, F will be very sensitive to that.

Posted by eSHkidd on July 13, 2012 (02:14PM)

The debt is precisely why it's so cheap. Mulally is no moron and he knows the debt more than anyone. Of course everyone sees the debt so no one wants to buy at the moment, that's whats making it a prime deal, but when that starts to shrink and the Euro crisis starts to resolve, there is nowhere but up for Ford.

Posted by Patches O'Houlihan on July 13, 2012 (02:19PM)

eSHkidd said: What are everybody's opinions on Ford?

Lots more buys than sells from traders on TradeKing recently. They're also one of the most widely held stocks here.

IMO The stock is severely underpriced, they've got a P/E ratio of 2!, $9 shares and they're earning $4.50.

On top of that, since the recession they've begun to make some of the most top quality cars in their price range and is one of the THE leaders in fuel efficiency. Upcoming All electric Focus, and ramping up EcoBoost production, with a new 1.0 litre engine, and all these ecoboosts are going to have very HIGH fuel economy.

What seems to be holding the stock price down is obviously the Euro-crisis. They have strong ties there. But with still such high profits, it's hard to see why it's THIS low.

They also have a lot of debt, but this is because they are embarking on a huge expansion phase. Opening plants, hiring more employees, ramping up production from the U.S. and especially in China.

Unfortunately, technical analysis on the site shows on a Descending Continuation Triangle, long term bearish, that estimates a future price of $7. I just don't see how they could possibly get this low.

I'm betting on them long-term bullish, with an estimated price of $16 in a year or two and when the Euro situation gets better.

Everyone's thoughts on them?

I stay away from automakers as a matter of principle.  I have zero doubt that no taxpayer money will be spared to ensure that Government Motors is declared a "success".  I used to do the same with airlines, but by golly they are now run like real companies now that have to earn a buck to stick around.  DAL is my current favorite. 

Posted by eSHkidd on July 13, 2012 (02:23PM)

Patches O'Houlihan said:

eSHkidd said: What are everybody's opinions on Ford?

Lots more buys than sells from traders on TradeKing recently. They're also one of the most widely held stocks here.

IMO The stock is severely underpriced, they've got a P/E ratio of 2!, $9 shares and they're earning $4.50.

On top of that, since the recession they've begun to make some of the most top quality cars in their price range and is one of the THE leaders in fuel efficiency. Upcoming All electric Focus, and ramping up EcoBoost production, with a new 1.0 litre engine, and all these ecoboosts are going to have very HIGH fuel economy.

What seems to be holding the stock price down is obviously the Euro-crisis. They have strong ties there. But with still such high profits, it's hard to see why it's THIS low.

They also have a lot of debt, but this is because they are embarking on a huge expansion phase. Opening plants, hiring more employees, ramping up production from the U.S. and especially in China.

Unfortunately, technical analysis on the site shows on a Descending Continuation Triangle, long term bearish, that estimates a future price of $7. I just don't see how they could possibly get this low.

I'm betting on them long-term bullish, with an estimated price of $16 in a year or two and when the Euro situation gets better.

Everyone's thoughts on them?

I stay away from automakers as a matter of principle.  I have zero doubt that no taxpayer money will be spared to ensure that Government Motors is declared a "success".  I used to do the same with airlines, but by golly they are now run like real companies now that have to earn a buck to stick around.  DAL is my current favorite. 

 As do I about GM. But F is the real success. They didn't accept bailout money and they don't plan to. They were smart with their assets and prepared some nets to catch them.

Posted by Patches O'Houlihan on July 13, 2012 (02:36PM)

eSHkidd said:

Patches O'Houlihan said:

eSHkidd said: What are everybody's opinions on Ford?

Lots more buys than sells from traders on TradeKing recently. They're also one of the most widely held stocks here.

IMO The stock is severely underpriced, they've got a P/E ratio of 2!, $9 shares and they're earning $4.50.

On top of that, since the recession they've begun to make some of the most top quality cars in their price range and is one of the THE leaders in fuel efficiency. Upcoming All electric Focus, and ramping up EcoBoost production, with a new 1.0 litre engine, and all these ecoboosts are going to have very HIGH fuel economy.

What seems to be holding the stock price down is obviously the Euro-crisis. They have strong ties there. But with still such high profits, it's hard to see why it's THIS low.

They also have a lot of debt, but this is because they are embarking on a huge expansion phase. Opening plants, hiring more employees, ramping up production from the U.S. and especially in China.

Unfortunately, technical analysis on the site shows on a Descending Continuation Triangle, long term bearish, that estimates a future price of $7. I just don't see how they could possibly get this low.

I'm betting on them long-term bullish, with an estimated price of $16 in a year or two and when the Euro situation gets better.

Everyone's thoughts on them?

I stay away from automakers as a matter of principle.  I have zero doubt that no taxpayer money will be spared to ensure that Government Motors is declared a "success".  I used to do the same with airlines, but by golly they are now run like real companies now that have to earn a buck to stick around.  DAL is my current favorite. 

 As do I about GM. But F is the real success. They didn't accept bailout money and they don't plan to. They were smart with their assets and prepared some nets to catch them.

I completely agree, I mean no disrespect to Ford, quite the opposite.  Mulally and Co. deserve serious props for steering clear of taking a suck on the taxpayer teat.  Unfortunately that doesn't change the macro world they live in, where Comrades and so-called crony capitalists play the game of mommy government picks the winners and losers.  And in that world Ford competes.  GM's numbers are up, all is well, right?  Whoops, taxpayers are footing the bill for mommy to buy boatloads of cars from its favorite suckling. 

Posted by InvestinMom on July 14, 2012 (02:10AM)

Keep an eye on the news. This evening's news has a report of a recall gone bad and some of the recall work being done improperly. This involves the throttle cable getting stuck and the vehicle increasing rapidly in speed. One young gal had this happen the very first time she got behind the wheel of the Ford Escape her dad had just bought for her. The mother was following only to see the vehicle become uncontrollable and watched in horror as her daughter's vehicle rolled 3 times. The daughter perished in the accident. Investigations indicate that there may be many more vehicles with this problem where the recall was done incorrectly by the mechanics, so lawsuits and / or a rather large second recall is probably coming.

Posted by Igess on July 15, 2012 (12:33AM)

I agree with you, eSHkidd.   I have a few F shares, and am considering adding more at its current price.  I also look to about 16 for a target.

People will continue to buy cars.  There'll be the replacement market in USA, and growth in South America and China.   Ford will get its share of business.  The stock will improve from current price - so I believe.

On the other hand,  I have similar response to GM.   I have a position in that one too.  Same reason -- I believe people will continue to buy cars, and GM will get its share of the business.  

Posted by OldFart on July 15, 2012 (01:06AM)

 In GM/BKR by Bloomberg  - NEW YORK: Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway acquired its largest stake in General Motors before the automaker slumped 16%, as the billionaire chairman hands more responsibility to deputy stock pickers.

Berkshire accumulated about 8.47 million shares of GM through Feb. 3 at an average price of $24.35, according to National Association of Insurance Commissioners data compiled by Bloomberg.

Posted by Patches O'Houlihan on July 15, 2012 (02:28PM)

Oh my!  America's favorite crony capitalist took a position in Government Motors and promptly got whacked?  That makes me smile.  On the other hand, I'm concerned that Mr. "Aw shucks, I just hang out in my 50 year old house in Omaha and try to pick good stocks" will head to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue and once more get his path to profit paved by the American taxpayer.  Just like with his "courageous" investments in Goldman Sachs and Bank of America that came only after it was clear mommy government would pave his way to making a big profit on his "risky" investment.

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