Scary Graphs to look at....
http://www.ino.com/blog/2012/07/wall-street-to-the-rescue/
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I'm in the same boat - I don't think it can get much lower. Good thing bonds move so slow, I'm only down 1% on my 3x leveraged bond short.
It's a small insurance policy, nothing more.
The idea came to me when I noticed the number of my clients who pay using credit.
If T's go to .75, you're right, business will probably boom., but I think we'd both agree that's not the best outcome for the long-term - more consumer debt instead of real net worth never ends well.
If rates rise, I'll make a pittance on this short position compared the real world losses, same with my nat gas position and other material/commodities I hold.
FYI, Jeb, though a "sane" conservative, plotted the course for voter manipulation in Bush v Gore.
By purging FLA voters in advance of the election he was able to make it tight race for his brother, Rick Scott and a plethora of states are tying the same thing again.
I'll be holding my short for the long-haul, again, my insurance policy for economic mayhem.
That said, a 100 yr chart of T's, If you have a 10 to 20 year time line it's somewhat apparent rates won't be lower in that time.
We haven't seen this since WW2.-
Scary Graphs...
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Question is why is the stock market so high if bonds are also so strong? Doesn't one of these two markets have to be wrong?
Fed's buying.... the only one
It's nuts, I have a small short position in T's.
If the ten yr gets below 1%, I double down.
If the ten yr gets below 1%, I double down.
You should consult the twenty year trend of the JGB. It will discourage any short trading in T's.incubus said: It's nuts, I have a small short position in T's.
If the ten yr gets below 1%, I double down.
If Europe goes down, I would think German Bonds are no longer safe. Only safe place is U.S. Bonds. That's why I have a short position in German Bonds.incubus said: It's nuts, I have a small short position in T's.
If the ten yr gets below 1%, I double down.
MP, look at T's over the last century, we've reached an extreme.
My Guess, America has to get to an FDR or T.R. type political dynasty, I suspect we're not far.
Made, you may be right,I'm shorting UST's is a tiny insurance policy, low rates are the last thing holding up the economy, and my comment above, the ten year see's rates this low once in 50 years or so.
My Guess, America has to get to an FDR or T.R. type political dynasty, I suspect we're not far.
Made, you may be right,I'm shorting UST's is a tiny insurance policy, low rates are the last thing holding up the economy, and my comment above, the ten year see's rates this low once in 50 years or so.
Ooops, German 10 Yr Yields hit record low and still dropping: http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/07/11/germany-debt-auction-idINL6E8IA6WQ20120711incubus said: MP, look at T's over the last century, we've reached an extreme.
My Guess, America has to get to an FDR or T.R. type political dynasty, I suspect we're not far.
Made, you may be right,I'm shorting UST's is a tiny insurance policy, low rates are the last thing holding up the economy, and my comment above, the ten year see's rates this low once in 50 years or so.
I'm in the same boat - I don't think it can get much lower. Good thing bonds move so slow, I'm only down 1% on my 3x leveraged bond short.
For clarification, I do not expect any gains on my short T position, for that matter, I hope not, because rates going up now would be potentially catastrophic for the economy.made to trade said:
I'm in the same boat - I don't think it can get much lower. Good thing bonds move so slow, I'm only down 1% on my 3x leveraged bond short.
It's a small insurance policy, nothing more.
The idea came to me when I noticed the number of my clients who pay using credit.
Jeb Bush for President? Anyway, you stand to make a great deal from the ten year moving from 1.5% to .75% in the next twenty-four months.incubus said: MP, look at T's over the last century, we've reached an extreme.
My Guess, America has to get to an FDR or T.R. type political dynasty, I suspect we're not far.
Market Pawn said:
Jeb Bush for President? Anyway, you stand to make a great deal from the ten year moving from 1.5% to .75% in the next twenty-four months.incubus said: MP, look at T's over the last century, we've reached an extreme.
My Guess, America has to get to an FDR or T.R. type political dynasty, I suspect we're not far.
If T's go to .75, you're right, business will probably boom., but I think we'd both agree that's not the best outcome for the long-term - more consumer debt instead of real net worth never ends well.
If rates rise, I'll make a pittance on this short position compared the real world losses, same with my nat gas position and other material/commodities I hold.
FYI, Jeb, though a "sane" conservative, plotted the course for voter manipulation in Bush v Gore.
By purging FLA voters in advance of the election he was able to make it tight race for his brother, Rick Scott and a plethora of states are tying the same thing again.
I'm thinking about getting out of my short bond. I'm down 3% and I feel the capital I've put up can be put to better use. I don't see yields rising any time soon even though I feel that this is a good play in the long term. Thoughts?incubus said:
For clarification, I do not expect any gains on my short T position, for that matter, I hope not, because rates going up now would be potentially catastrophic for the economy.made to trade said:
I'm in the same boat - I don't think it can get much lower. Good thing bonds move so slow, I'm only down 1% on my 3x leveraged bond short.
It's a small insurance policy, nothing more.
The idea came to me when I noticed the number of my clients who pay using credit.
I agree, or at least I hope you're right.made to trade said:
I'm thinking about getting out of my short bond. I'm down 3% and I feel the capital I've put up can be put to better use. I don't see yields rising any time soon even though I feel that this is a good play in the long term. Thoughts?
I'll be holding my short for the long-haul, again, my insurance policy for economic mayhem.
Why would rates go up during economic mayhem? Especially when it comes to treasuries which in my opinion is the last safe place to put your money other than stable value, which isn't open to most people anyways.incubus said:
I agree, or at least I hope you're right.made to trade said:
I'm thinking about getting out of my short bond. I'm down 3% and I feel the capital I've put up can be put to better use. I don't see yields rising any time soon even though I feel that this is a good play in the long term. Thoughts?
I'll be holding my short for the long-haul, again, my insurance policy for economic mayhem.
I'll rephrase, if rates did go up, it would be economic mayhem, higher rates would be absolutely daunting for us right now.made to trade said:
Why would rates go up during economic mayhem? Especially when it comes to treasuries which in my opinion is the last safe place to put your money other than stable value, which isn't open to most people anyways.
That said, a 100 yr chart of T's, If you have a 10 to 20 year time line it's somewhat apparent rates won't be lower in that time.
We haven't seen this since WW2.-
I see, if rates go up, there will be mayhem as opposed to if mayhem happens, rates will go up.incubus said:
I'll rephrase, if rates did go up, it would be economic mayhem, higher rates would be absolutely daunting for us right now.made to trade said:
Why would rates go up during economic mayhem? Especially when it comes to treasuries which in my opinion is the last safe place to put your money other than stable value, which isn't open to most people anyways.
That said, a 100 yr chart of T's, If you have a 10 to 20 year time line it's somewhat apparent rates won't be lower in that time.
We haven't seen this since WW2.-
The negative variables, aside the 100 year chart,
We have a large percentage of foreign holders of T's, China could decide to put the screws to us (not likely, but mentionable), also,
TBTF's are stashed to the hilt with T derivatives to the tune of trillions of $$....if Congress actually decides to do something economically productive, it could drive money out of T's and into equities....the actual intent of QE & rate easing in the first place.
It's not exactly a secret that certain members of the House are chronic filibusterers and have prioritized the "one term president" objective, a small tweak in tax reform or growth policies could trigger a sell-off in T's.
When I hear a large fraction of traders in my periferal all on board with the "risk free" treasury trade, it gets me thinking contrarian, CNBC has stopped talking about treasury bubbles for at least a year now.
We have a large percentage of foreign holders of T's, China could decide to put the screws to us (not likely, but mentionable), also,
TBTF's are stashed to the hilt with T derivatives to the tune of trillions of $$....if Congress actually decides to do something economically productive, it could drive money out of T's and into equities....the actual intent of QE & rate easing in the first place.
It's not exactly a secret that certain members of the House are chronic filibusterers and have prioritized the "one term president" objective, a small tweak in tax reform or growth policies could trigger a sell-off in T's.
When I hear a large fraction of traders in my periferal all on board with the "risk free" treasury trade, it gets me thinking contrarian, CNBC has stopped talking about treasury bubbles for at least a year now.
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