Islands?

From the gap up last Friday to the gap lower today we could see a island top reversal depending on where the SPY opens.
We have wiped out almost all gains see from the huge move a week ago in US markets.
And have see the euro? its about to go test some major support levels that it will need to hold.

TRADE.TRADE.TRADE.

maybe by text book definition.
but it looks pretty islandy to me.

An island reversal is when something gaps up (down), moves sideways, and then gaps down (up) at about the same place it jumped the first time.

What we are seeing in the SPY might be a temporary top but no where close to an island reversal pattern.  In fact the gap itself held up as support.

Here are examples:

Market Pawn said: Island or no island, the technicals still captivate.  How, for example, across 500 stocks and millions of traders/investors (including computers) do we end the day stuck at the 1353 level to where we gapped up June 29 from a much lower level, near where we essentially peaked on June 19.  Somehow, we go into the weekend at exactly that level, begging the question:  Monday up or down from that technical pivot?

I remember the time period where profits exceeded expectations; but the jest was because of uncertainty, a new lower projection was being used for the final 2 qtrs...

Thus, stocks went down.  Only to be followed by an upswing eventually...  I don't look for a swing until after AA reports this Monday after close....

Market doesn't know what way to go. Would get to the lows, actually broke support for a short time then bounced. Bounced lower from resistance also. I think we are down in the short term this week. We didn't have a chance to weaken the support last week because of the qe rumor. Today was just an extension of Friday. We closed today where Friday's close would have been without the rumor. Gives us better chance to break through to the downside tomorrow with lackluster earnings so far.

NASDAQsavages said: i assume your are referencing the 134.85 area where turned on a dime multiple time in the past two session (so annoying) . Im watching the EUR/USD fall apart right now so who knows where we open tomorrow. 

 Yes that is the area. I think it's actually 134.80. It breached lower for about 5 min then quickly retreated. We didn't get lower than 134.85-134.95 on Friday because of the rumor so it wasn't tested yet. The support seems strong but I think resistance overhead is stronger given how quickly we pulled back from the open. If it breaks through tomorrow maybe we see 1 or more to the downside.

BORING indeed. 
I keep telling myself its the calm before the storm. 

treeHamster said: Haha. I like this range bound trading on SPY. I'm killing it on calling bottom (gotten 3 days in a row, calling it only 5 minutes or less after the bottom). A good tip to see what people are feeling is to look at how the IV is doing. If it's hitting a bottom on the calls, then bouncing back more than 10% on those low points (simply from IV recovery), then it's the bottom (but not necessarily the bottom for the option, darn you decay!!).

 what are you using to track IV in the options intraday? the only detailed quotes I've found are delayed

I found it interesting that todays low was 6/22 high. It is amazing how well respected  technical levels have been treated for the past couple of weeks, says to me traders are the only real participants playing lately. Investors are no where to be found. There is absolutely no commitment.. Vix was interesting today. Starting to look like 7/3 might be a short term bottom. If nothing else we have a wider range to trade $134ish - 136ish. Or i want to short SPY (depending on tomorrows open) to 133, 132, 131 and then reevaluate. 

I track IV intraday just by watching it in the TK Live option chains and remebering where it was at highs and lows of the day. To me its not the actual number as much as the range its swinging in when the market is at key levels. 

Watching VIX intraday is helpful. 

Should be noted here as well that whether friday made a Island reversal or not, it was a reversa,l Mr. Snowman. 

my SPY chart says that tomorrow we must hold 133.43 for the uptrend that started 6/4 to remain intact.. 133.43 was also the high on 6/27. CONSPIRACY!! just kiddin. But it'll be a great place to initiate a new short in SPY and a VIX position if broken. If hold and a we get a bounce off that level GO LONG!!!! I wouldn't get long or initiate a new short until we go touch the level.