At 8:30 Eastern Time we will get an update on Jobs.... That said, we have an early expectation that the June Monster Recruitment Employment Index grew 5 Percent in June as where it was showing a rise of 4 percent month after month before There is a value that is called the whisper.... It is a number that folks are looking for and I believe the revision will now be over 100K to begin the hopium induced state of upticks regardless of where the rest of the world is....
Monster numbers have a spot on problem but the direction is usually correct.
They also have reported that the Euro Index demonstrates a 1 percent rise verses a 6 percent in the prior month.
The problem with a good number on the US side may leave you high and dry at the end of the day if the Fed thinks it can now delay QE 3 because of an increase in jobs... This one gun should be saved for the Euro if / when if falls apart.
If you add restated earnings with a sluggish forecast for the remainder of the year.... Who knows... A recent poll of CEO's show 16% think the rest of the year will be better as where 61% held that opine going into the previous qtr.
How the market will react may be a quick uptick and settle back down or drop on news that QE 3 is not on the table for now...
In the end, the direction of the market can't really be determined and anyone suggesting the way the day ends will have to have Big Powerful Crystal Ball(s) that I don't have....
I believe that if we loose some of the big winners over the last two days... We may find a quick drop. There is a problem with NetFlix about a hidden charge of over 1 Billion not showing on it's 100 plus page report...
Eve's little tempter, AAPL, may shock you for the 2nd time as it will state a clear contradiction to what analyst numbers project... a reduced qtr as well as less profit".
Samsung and others are reporting record sales and also are providing future warnings on the Euro... AAPL, with it's delay for fast access; may have opened up opportunities for the other guys to uptick market penetration... AAPL also faces a Windows Tablet and yet another,
Amazon, is creating it's own smart phone... AAPL also buys a lot of components from Samsung.
I mention these two stocks because the more I hear terms like "Get Rich", "To the Moon", etc... I find the reality disappoints and leaves retail holder in the High Side of the Trade.
These opines have been put together using multiple different sources; but the main one was Reuters.
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July 6, 2012 Jobs Report..... NFLX and AAPL
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Otter makes some really good points.
I'd like to add on a bit. If you look back at Netflix six months ago, you'll find that almost the exact same news story came out (about x number of hours watched by users) around the same price range (70-80) and the price skyrocketed going into Q1 earnings. Then it rose up another 20% after earnings came out and hung there until Q2 earnings. Then reality set in with Q2 when people realized while people watch a LOT of Netflix, they still have the same business model problems today that they had six months ago (which is what they had a year ago which took the stock down from the high around $300), and the stock crashed to $90 in the first few days after Q2 earnings and kept falling until it bottomed out two weeks ago. So while it's rising, and a LOT, I would say not to buy it after it hits $90. My buy point after that would be at $135 which would be a strong 10% past the last top out in the low $120's. That for me would be proof that the stock isn't just getting an extra boost from the market it's rising it.
For AAPL, we are seeing a lot of people begin to tout the $1000 PP again but if you were watching in the options in the past few weeks on AAPL, IV was being sucked out even as it broke the technical barriers and was experiencing breakouts. A big technical barrier was the $590 mark. When it passed that point earlier this week, AAPL calls barely moved even though the stock moved an addition 1% intraday (they rose 50% while SPY calls rose 200%). So if the MM's and traders thought AAPL was a great buy, you would have seen large call volumes when it broke 590 but it wasn't until it passed 600 that call volume increased. This tells me that retail investors were the ones buying AAPL and not the MM's. Therefore I would be highly cautious about AAPL going into earnings and probably wouldn't buy it until after earnings. Remember the big rally on AAPL didn't happen right after earnings. AAPL only moved an extra 3% the following week after earnings. It was two weeks afterwards before the rally that ran it to $530. Therefore don't buy into the hype until you see the numbers.
It's better to wait to see the results before placing bets. The returns are much lower but by waiting you've increased your mutual information significantly which minimizes your possible risk which gives you a better Risk/Reward ratio.
I'd like to add on a bit. If you look back at Netflix six months ago, you'll find that almost the exact same news story came out (about x number of hours watched by users) around the same price range (70-80) and the price skyrocketed going into Q1 earnings. Then it rose up another 20% after earnings came out and hung there until Q2 earnings. Then reality set in with Q2 when people realized while people watch a LOT of Netflix, they still have the same business model problems today that they had six months ago (which is what they had a year ago which took the stock down from the high around $300), and the stock crashed to $90 in the first few days after Q2 earnings and kept falling until it bottomed out two weeks ago. So while it's rising, and a LOT, I would say not to buy it after it hits $90. My buy point after that would be at $135 which would be a strong 10% past the last top out in the low $120's. That for me would be proof that the stock isn't just getting an extra boost from the market it's rising it.
For AAPL, we are seeing a lot of people begin to tout the $1000 PP again but if you were watching in the options in the past few weeks on AAPL, IV was being sucked out even as it broke the technical barriers and was experiencing breakouts. A big technical barrier was the $590 mark. When it passed that point earlier this week, AAPL calls barely moved even though the stock moved an addition 1% intraday (they rose 50% while SPY calls rose 200%). So if the MM's and traders thought AAPL was a great buy, you would have seen large call volumes when it broke 590 but it wasn't until it passed 600 that call volume increased. This tells me that retail investors were the ones buying AAPL and not the MM's. Therefore I would be highly cautious about AAPL going into earnings and probably wouldn't buy it until after earnings. Remember the big rally on AAPL didn't happen right after earnings. AAPL only moved an extra 3% the following week after earnings. It was two weeks afterwards before the rally that ran it to $530. Therefore don't buy into the hype until you see the numbers.
It's better to wait to see the results before placing bets. The returns are much lower but by waiting you've increased your mutual information significantly which minimizes your possible risk which gives you a better Risk/Reward ratio.
Well, we're about to loose both AAPL and NFLX
Both heading back to 50 mda
Bounced off bottom way too fast for me to commit
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