Iranian ‘Playground’

Posted by SimpleTrades on July 01, 2012 (09:44PM)

"The reduction in Iranian exports may become the biggest supply disruption from a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries since an armed rebellion all but halted pumping in Libya last year, according to the International Energy Agency. It also comes as a strike by Norwegian workers is curbing flows from North Sea fields."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-01/iran-oil-sanctions-risk-biggest-opec-export-loss-since-libya.html

Posted by OldFart on July 02, 2012 (12:20PM)


I read an article somewhere the inflation is very high

Posted by incubus on July 02, 2012 (01:42PM)

$100/barrel oil wasn't the time to buy, regardless of foreseeable crisis.

I entered @ $78, prepared to buy more lower - mindful oil got all the way to $35 in '08.

Posted by OldFart on July 03, 2012 (11:42AM)


The quiet but significant American military buildup in the Strait of Hormuz, in response to Iran's threat Monday to disrupt sea traffic, carries risks of confrontation. - http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/03/world/middleeast/us-adds-forces-in-persian-gulf-a-signal-to-iran.html?_r=1&nl=todaysheadlines&emc=edit_th_20120703

Posted by incubus on July 03, 2012 (04:39PM)

Dennis Gartman on FM last night, convinced oil is entering a bear market based on supply/demand. (provided CFTC position limits are in place on futures)

Though I'm not of the same thinking, I got 75% out today, made enough to cover a few tanks of gas this summer as seasonal prices rise, just in case Gartman's right.

Posted by NASDAQsavages on July 03, 2012 (06:54PM)

WTI $65..

I see things. Houston TX, is slowing down. And i say WTI will tank because the oil players down here started looking nervous a few months back, while the companies that benefit from the oil economy and back logs of the majors down here are screaming "full steam ahead".  This has been representative of economic slowdowns in Houstons energy industries for decades. It is the principal of accumulation, public participation, and distribution outside of financial markets at play. Also I was going through one of the oil service companyies 10k the other day I cant remember who.. It was BHI or SLB maybe WFT and they noted that 2011 saw almost no growth of oil demand but benefited from non conventional and new discovery oil plays. 2011 oil price was supported by Mid East disturbances remember. Also i think Obama might have some side deals with the Saudis to keep supply really high and drive the oil price lower.  Remember when he started condemning oil speculators and the price conveniently fell making him look like a hero. But that is just a conspiracy theory, Obama's a cool cat.

On a side note
IRAN needs to go chill out.. I mean these guys.. you know.

Posted by sky02316 on July 04, 2012 (04:44PM)

NASDAQsavages said: WTI $65..

I see things. Houston TX, is slowing down. And i say WTI will tank because the oil players down here started looking nervous a few months back, while the companies that benefit from the oil economy and back logs of the majors down here are screaming "full steam ahead".  This has been representative of economic slowdowns in Houstons energy industries for decades. It is the principal of accumulation, public participation, and distribution outside of financial markets at play. Also I was going through one of the oil service companyies 10k the other day I cant remember who.. It was BHI or SLB maybe WFT and they noted that 2011 saw almost no growth of oil demand but benefited from non conventional and new discovery oil plays. 2011 oil price was supported by Mid East disturbances remember. Also i think Obama might have some side deals with the Saudis to keep supply really high and drive the oil price lower.  Remember when he started condemning oil speculators and the price conveniently fell making him look like a hero. But that is just a conspiracy theory, Obama's a cool cat.

On a side note
IRAN needs to go chill out.. I mean these guys.. you know.

 do you think natural gas is going to slow down also? it's traded up with oil the last few weeks

Posted by NASDAQsavages on July 04, 2012 (10:55PM)

I love the gas market. It is our final hope.
Nat gas has very different fundamental reasons for going up which is likely to hold current levels if not continuing higher.

This is the best thing the MAJORS, Independents, and oil services had going for them last year.

With gas prices moving up this quarter i imagine it kept earnings afloat for energy sector. - a guess

Nat gas drilling for the E&P co. in my view is akin to a trader putting on a strangle.
Its not your favorite trade but you'll put it on just make a few dollars at the end of the week.

- eagerly awaiting OIL & gas co. earnings. 

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