Forum » General » Buy and Hold is not dead.

Buy and Hold is not dead.

Alcoholresearch_thumb Brokerage Account

Posted by spshapiro on July 01, 2012 (08:30AM)

Days like Friday are not the norm, and I’m not talking so much about a specific average’s point gain, but the impact for one’s portfolio (namely mine). If you get a day like that 2 or 3 times a year, you can do very well, as long as you don’t blow those gains by getting a fathead. But when those days will come is unpredictable. Everybody knew that with some positive squawking out of Europe, the market could have a good day, but such a good day? This day represented more than 20% of my yearly gains. This day allowed me to sell 4 rich premium covered calls.

If I basically tried to pick my point of entry and exit of the market, it is easy to conceive that I would have been out of the market, since May  it went down hill after the start and June only got worse. I hit an all time high on May 1 and Friday closed with me being .4% below that. Since AMLN announced the sale of itself on Friday afternoon, other things being equal, I will be above that point at the open on Monday.

But unless somebody has different plans for me, I will still be in the market on Tuesday (and beyond). I have no idea when the next big up day will come, and I’m certain that there will be big down days as well, but over time the market has proven to have an upward bias. Buy and Hold is not dead.    
Otter_dec_16_thumb Brokerage Account

Posted by The Otter Way on July 01, 2012 (09:37AM)

SP, your post reminds me of the story about the little tiny engine that was climbing a hill.... "I think I can.... I think I can.... I think I can..... I know I can.... I know I can...

I am happy that you came out this morning and declared... Buy and Hold is not Dead.... but you missed a few more words in your forum post....

Buy and Hold is not dead for Me (SP)......

You invest.... I scalp.... others do what others do.....In the end... It is what it is ......


Congrats on your declaration.... and good luck with your implementation.... and good luck with selling your puts/calls to add to your investment returns....

I am happy that your drips.... (you got to see a doctor) is giving you the returns that you feel are just and right for you....

I on the other hand could never go back to the style that you suggest..... but, that's me....

Gsbank_thumb Brokerage Account

Posted by NASDAQsavages on July 01, 2012 (10:24AM)


Street fight!!!!!

i bet otter wins today.
but SP will have the last laugh though.


Monkey_thumb Brokerage Account

Posted by OldFart on July 01, 2012 (11:23AM)


sp, congrats on AMLN. $31 per share is a nice change of BMY's initial offer of $24. I know it is a personal question, no worries if you decide not to answer but r u using it?
Think_ahead__-_copy_thumb Brokerage Account

Posted by incubus on July 01, 2012 (01:48PM)

If you were, say, a 55 yr old man starting to realize retirement was right around the corner in 1966 & decided to hop onto the big rally taking place that year, You'd have watched your retirement fund oscillate down -20% to -40% four times over the next 16 years.

By the time you were 71, you'd have gained 5% to 7% using a straight buy and hold strategy.

If you'd scaled into the dips, taken profits on spikes, you'd have a dramatically different result.

Shap will make the debate about stock picking, no argument there, but to point out that simply leaving money on the market, in terms of the big picture, is no guarantee for success.

Everything hinges on macro-economics and global policies to deal with it.

Alcoholresearch_thumb Brokerage Account

Posted by spshapiro on July 01, 2012 (07:25PM)

Otter, as I have said before, I recognize that there are many roads to Damascus, and I recognize that yours works for you. But I’ve seen an evolution for you to get there, and my comments are directed here mainly to the newbies who read our drivel. I don’t wish to argue whether my way is more or less successful than yours, my claim is only that it is more accessible. Nasq, there will never be a winner in the war between the sexes, and I have learned the hard way that the bedroom is no place for gloating.

OF, yes I’ve started on Bydureon two weeks ago, and I’ve lost five pounds. I can’t tell you that I like the fact that it has repressed my appetite, because I do enjoy, enjoying a good meal. And with the triple this year on AMLN, I can afford a couple of them, although I still am accepting small cash donations to further alcohol research.

Inky, if you were 55, you might have another thirty years in front of you, so yes, in 1966 you have some lean market years in front of you, but by the mid 90’s you had some fat ones too. But you are right, I will always hold that stock picking is essential. My portfolio is not the market; I am not a proponent of Bogle, who buys the market at the lowest cost and holds ‘forever’. I will always reevaluate my portfolio, stock by stock, and I believe in weeding out the poor performers before I have to stare at them and say “why did you ever believe in the tub of lardo?” I freely confess that my most grievous and consistent error is hanging on too long to losers, but I’m getting better all the time. My point here though is,  although I will also play (mostly with options) dips and rips, I believe in being MOSTLY in the market, to take advantage of the unexpected good fortune that comes our way. In the words of T. Williams, “I get by on the kindness of strange days in the market.”    
Otter_dec_16_thumb Brokerage Account

Posted by The Otter Way on July 01, 2012 (11:26PM)

We have seen with our own eyes the strength of our enemies, and yet we have failed to notice we are gazing upon a mirror.  For thine enemy is thyself.

I consider myself a warrior going into battle each and every day.  It is not my job nor assigned task to win the war... but to gain ground... and it doesn't and shouldn't matter the direction of the ground I take, nor the value of the stock, the quality of the investment, and the drivel about the CEO or etc.....

The war we're in isn't counted by touch downs or goals, but by profit of a market in any direction... Long or Short...  Bull or Bear....  and one should not have to wait for a turnaround in which to make money... Nor tie up limited resource capital in hopes of turning a profit.

SP, this is not a battle of the sexes; but a battle for each individual investor to understand that money can be made in both directions.... and how best to limit investment capital for a ROI.


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