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VIX at 18.80 hahahaha.
BUY EM.
IV got crushed in SPY today. Too low. Just too low.
Put on an straddle at 134. and strangle at 133 and 135. (all weeklies)
More of a Vega play than a direction play.
Also went in and bought some VXX calls. I mean VIX at 18 give me a break. I rarely plat the VIX but seriously the world did not change since last Friday.
Loving this crazy EURO. Why isnt it getting more attention. Also waiting for WTI to break $81.00
Anyway thanks complacent market you just financed a couple of new shoes at the end of the week. Maybe even a haircut. (keep your fingers crossed)
I also said that Germany would leave the Euro and Uncle Ben had 1 shot left in his gun.... I might be wrong there.... but.... who knows...
And Greece is at it again.... It's in their nature to cheat, lie, steal, and belly ache...
Fighting for a new deal.... They want door number 2.... not the box....
http://www.smh.com.au/world/greece-has-new-government-says-pasok-party-chief-20120620-20ob6.html
I enclosed a chart show contango comparison...
volatility city.
Displaying entries 1 - 20 of 37 forum posts in total
12
VIX at 18.80 hahahaha.
BUY EM.
IV got crushed in SPY today. Too low. Just too low.
Put on an straddle at 134. and strangle at 133 and 135. (all weeklies)
More of a Vega play than a direction play.
Also went in and bought some VXX calls. I mean VIX at 18 give me a break. I rarely plat the VIX but seriously the world did not change since last Friday.
Loving this crazy EURO. Why isnt it getting more attention. Also waiting for WTI to break $81.00
Anyway thanks complacent market you just financed a couple of new shoes at the end of the week. Maybe even a haircut. (keep your fingers crossed)
I mean, I agree the VIX is temporarily oversold at these levels, but I think going long at this point in time is a counter-trend trade. We've broken below the 50-day SMA and the even more important 20.00 support/resistance level. You can probably play it for a short-term bounce, but I'd hate to see you get caught on the wrong side of a strong move.
Just out of curiosity, why did you buy VXX calls and not VIX index calls? The VXX is a naturally decaying instrument when contango is occurring (like it is now), meaning it's working against you if you're trying to go long.
Just out of curiosity, why did you buy VXX calls and not VIX index calls? The VXX is a naturally decaying instrument when contango is occurring (like it is now), meaning it's working against you if you're trying to go long.
I agree with the counter trend point. But remember last summer when the vix went 20,25,50? I'll buy into the trade more every point down in the vix - down to 15. I never saw any validity trying to trade the VIX technically. You can try and just do the opposite of the SPX but i dont really trade the vix. As far as the VXX calls over VIX options, I dont like index options. Not enough volume. Expensive. I don't really get how to price them. Last summer I used VXX options. And made out like a bandit.
But I really did get into the trade in haste. Just saw the VIX below 20 and bought em. Prolly got into the trade to early. I see VXX down .60 cents in pre market. I think I might have to hedge the position with SPY calls.
Jamie Dimon could learn from me. My hedges,hedge's got hedges.
But I really did get into the trade in haste. Just saw the VIX below 20 and bought em. Prolly got into the trade to early. I see VXX down .60 cents in pre market. I think I might have to hedge the position with SPY calls.
Jamie Dimon could learn from me. My hedges,hedge's got hedges.
Yeah, I mean as long as your expiration date is far enough out and you're willing to swallow some unrealized losses while you bide your time, it should work out for you. I'm sure the VIX will trade above 20 before the summer's over. I just worry about the VXX in contango... Really skews the risk-reward ratio against the longs.
correction: Jamie Dimon has now showed me that hedges can "morph" into trades.
I hedged the VXX calls with SPY calls at the open. Got the 136 strikes when the market was at 135.10. Then the Spy calls ended up making me money. A fair amount of money. So much more than a hedge. I love this!! Big ups Jamie Dimon.
Also closed the Strangle/Straddle because we had a huge move on no volume. We also couldn't hold 1360. Very discouraging. And all of my gains were on the calls. Had the 134 calls and 135 calls go into the money in 24 hours and still got to close the puts with out them going out worthless. I usually hold Straddles Strangles until Expiration. Not today though. Either way Im very happy with the trade. Only wish i would have added to the VXX position.
Foot Locker here i come.
I hedged the VXX calls with SPY calls at the open. Got the 136 strikes when the market was at 135.10. Then the Spy calls ended up making me money. A fair amount of money. So much more than a hedge. I love this!! Big ups Jamie Dimon.
Also closed the Strangle/Straddle because we had a huge move on no volume. We also couldn't hold 1360. Very discouraging. And all of my gains were on the calls. Had the 134 calls and 135 calls go into the money in 24 hours and still got to close the puts with out them going out worthless. I usually hold Straddles Strangles until Expiration. Not today though. Either way Im very happy with the trade. Only wish i would have added to the VXX position.
Foot Locker here i come.
when your hedge morphs into a trade, and then a loss, so you hedge the hedge to the point that your not sure what your hedging anymore - it turns into some thing that i cannot defend.
I think someone broke the VIX because its not working how i thought it would.
the SPY 135 put that expires this Friday had an IV of 4.5 for a moment today. YES 4.5. while either strike on the either side of it were 12 and 23 respectively. i even thought the 12 was ridiculous.
That says to me someone really big was doing something really weird. And they were doing it aggressively. - CALLING A BOTTOM!!!
I hope it blows up in their face. but it appears at the close they really know what their doing,
I need someone to blame.. hmmmmm... it was Bernanke. he did it.
Loving this WTI though.. so at least something is working..
I think someone broke the VIX because its not working how i thought it would.
the SPY 135 put that expires this Friday had an IV of 4.5 for a moment today. YES 4.5. while either strike on the either side of it were 12 and 23 respectively. i even thought the 12 was ridiculous.
That says to me someone really big was doing something really weird. And they were doing it aggressively. - CALLING A BOTTOM!!!
I hope it blows up in their face. but it appears at the close they really know what their doing,
I need someone to blame.. hmmmmm... it was Bernanke. he did it.
Loving this WTI though.. so at least something is working..
NAS - sold 10 puts VXX June 22nd - 16.00 strike. Thought now way it could ever make it below 16 but here I sit. How the hell did the VXX fall 4.5% today?
This is when I think someone is juicing the system. Guess it is what it is but it defies logic. Maybe I am just unlucky.
This is when I think someone is juicing the system. Guess it is what it is but it defies logic. Maybe I am just unlucky.
I'm telling you guys, read up on VIX futures contango and the effect it causes on the VXX called roll yield. Luck has nothing to do with it: the VXX is a terrible instrument to go long when the VIX is in contango.
Start with this article: http://seekingalpha.com/article/267950-ipath-s-p-500-vix-short-term-futures-etn-swimming-against-the-currents. It's a year old, but the same theory holds true. The CBOE website confirms that the VIX futures curve is indeed upward sloping (as is usually the case): http://www.cboe.com/micro/vix/vixfuturesprices.aspx
Start with this article: http://seekingalpha.com/article/267950-ipath-s-p-500-vix-short-term-futures-etn-swimming-against-the-currents. It's a year old, but the same theory holds true. The CBOE website confirms that the VIX futures curve is indeed upward sloping (as is usually the case): http://www.cboe.com/micro/vix/vixfuturesprices.aspx
should have heeded your original warning. I didnt understand the ETN structure, and as a result i am sitting in a losing position. It was alright yesterday cause i had the SPY calls against it. Didn't really anticipate the spx and vix going down together. I really should just stay away from the VIX, its my i hope i get lucky trade. i am however so thankful i took off the Straddle/strangle off yesterday. The IV really came out of the puts today, and Theta really hurt calls. close one.Datsik128 said: I'm telling you guys, read up on VIX futures contango and the effect it causes on the VXX called roll yield. Luck has nothing to do with it: the VXX is a terrible instrument to go long when the VIX is in contango.
Start with this article: http://seekingalpha.com/article/267950-ipath-s-p-500-vix-short-term-futures-etn-swimming-against-the-currents. It's a year old, but the same theory holds true. The CBOE website confirms that the VIX futures curve is indeed upward sloping (as is usually the case): http://www.cboe.com/micro/vix/vixfuturesprices.aspx
BSteve-
"Maybe I am just unlucky."
Yep, I was thinking same thing today as I watched it plummet yet (yet, yet) again. I know about the LT decay and contango/roll yield but even then it seems(ed) excessive. But yes: unlucky I am. On other hand most places recommend not holding these for more than a day... day trade it or leave it alone...
"Maybe I am just unlucky."
Yep, I was thinking same thing today as I watched it plummet yet (yet, yet) again. I know about the LT decay and contango/roll yield but even then it seems(ed) excessive. But yes: unlucky I am. On other hand most places recommend not holding these for more than a day... day trade it or leave it alone...
Ok I understand what is happening but there should be a max decline. I am down 7 cents from the strike but yet puts are being bought for 260% more than what I sold mine at. I guess they don't see this thing hitting the brakes at all. AAAArrrrggghhh!
It's now 11:58 Central Time and the futures on ES 09-12 are reading 1344. VXX was in the low 17.00 at that mark around 12:00 noon today (6/20/12). We will probably take out the 1305 stop before this week is out.
I'm looking for a return of VXX to 40 before July. Good luck with that right! I am also looking for AAPL to help get us there... I see AAPL drop'n to below 500 very soon. Good luck with that one too!
China just reported lowest growth forecast since 2008. Big sell off in commodities, oil is going lower.... Dollar going higher...
It's what the Fed's didn't say today.... They can't afford to implement QE3 until the Euro falls apart....
Look for Germany to leave the Euro and let the rest fend for themselves.... Why would Germany (ultra conservative) continue to use cash reserves to bail out countries that lied and cheated their way into the Euro. There is not enough money to refinance the existing debt of Italy, Spain, Greece.... and the whole world economy is slowing down.... down.... down...
There is only 1 shot left in Uncle Ben's pistol.
I'm looking for a return of VXX to 40 before July. Good luck with that right! I am also looking for AAPL to help get us there... I see AAPL drop'n to below 500 very soon. Good luck with that one too!
China just reported lowest growth forecast since 2008. Big sell off in commodities, oil is going lower.... Dollar going higher...
It's what the Fed's didn't say today.... They can't afford to implement QE3 until the Euro falls apart....
Look for Germany to leave the Euro and let the rest fend for themselves.... Why would Germany (ultra conservative) continue to use cash reserves to bail out countries that lied and cheated their way into the Euro. There is not enough money to refinance the existing debt of Italy, Spain, Greece.... and the whole world economy is slowing down.... down.... down...
There is only 1 shot left in Uncle Ben's pistol.
Wait, so your prediction is 1305 by Friday and 40 on the VXX in the next 7 trading days? Just want to make sure I'm understanding you right.
I'm....so....proud.Datsik128 said: I'm telling you guys, read up on VIX futures contango and the effect it causes on the VXX called roll yield. Luck has nothing to do with it: the VXX is a terrible instrument to go long when the VIX is in contango.
...
Yes, and if I'm wrong I won't post for a whole day.... Okay!Datsik128 said: Wait, so your prediction is 1305 by Friday and 40 on the VXX in the next 7 trading days? Just want to make sure I'm understanding you right.
I also said that Germany would leave the Euro and Uncle Ben had 1 shot left in his gun.... I might be wrong there.... but.... who knows...
Tomorrow's really a make-or-break day when we truly learn how the markets digest the FOMC decision. If we break convincingly below the 1340 level, 1305 is indeed possible (although the market will need more than 2 days to make such a move). As for the VXX, I'm not sure what the probability of a 150% gain in seven days is, but I'm betting it's not very high. Some would call it infinitesimal. But we will see.
Me too ther incubus...incubus said:
I'm....so....proud.Datsik128 said: I'm telling you guys, read up on VIX futures contango and the effect it causes on the VXX called roll yield. Luck has nothing to do with it: the VXX is a terrible instrument to go long when the VIX is in contango.
...
Don't forget.... AAPL will be helping out here very shortly.Datsik128 said: Tomorrow's really a make-or-break day when we truly learn how the markets digest the FOMC decision. If we break convincingly below the 1340 level, 1305 is indeed possible (although the market will need more than 2 days to make such a move). As for the VXX, I'm not sure what the probability of a 150% gain in seven days is, but I'm betting it's not very high. Some would call it infinitesimal. But we will see.
And Greece is at it again.... It's in their nature to cheat, lie, steal, and belly ache...
Fighting for a new deal.... They want door number 2.... not the box....
http://www.smh.com.au/world/greece-has-new-government-says-pasok-party-chief-20120620-20ob6.html
Spain got some good news so we have gotten to -3.25 on ES 09-12 at 5:00 a.m Central. Their borrowing costs are much higher now compared to last... But it wasn't 7% so that's news to rally on.... It made it to it's pivot or reverse point and is currently reversing...Datsik128 said: I'm telling you guys, read up on VIX futures contango and the effect it causes on the VXX called roll yield. Luck has nothing to do with it: the VXX is a terrible instrument to go long when the VIX is in contango.
Start with this article: http://seekingalpha.com/article/267950-ipath-s-p-500-vix-short-term-futures-etn-swimming-against-the-currents. It's a year old, but the same theory holds true. The CBOE website confirms that the VIX futures curve is indeed upward sloping (as is usually the case): http://www.cboe.com/micro/vix/vixfuturesprices.aspx
I enclosed a chart show contango comparison...
i think the lack of sleep is getting the best of you Otter.
I couldn't be anymore on both sides of the market right now.
So i hope your right about the market moves your predicting.
But my gut says that will not be the case. Keep your fingers crossed.
DUMP WTI.
Going to the high 60's.
There i go with my crazy predictions.
I couldn't be anymore on both sides of the market right now.
So i hope your right about the market moves your predicting.
But my gut says that will not be the case. Keep your fingers crossed.
DUMP WTI.
Going to the high 60's.
There i go with my crazy predictions.
Displaying entries 1 - 20 of 37 forum posts in total
12
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