What's your price on FB

Posted by incubus on August 12, 2012 (01:33PM)

Janosik said: Incy, I still can't believe AOL is around. I'm perplexed.

Ten years ago they were a major contender for internet search, 2nd to Google.

They were also the #1 "social network", with a vast array of chat rooms, message boards and educational forums on a wide variety of topics and lifestyles.

Then, they downsized, eliminating a lot of their social functionality - a stupid, stupid move, now we see "social networking" sites popping up all over the place.

At a glance, it looks like AOL has been moving to get back to where they were, now that they realize they dropped the ball at a time they'd have secured the dominant spot for this industry had they simply stayed the course.

Posted by Market Pawn on August 12, 2012 (02:55PM)

The AOL story is a lot like the Kodak story. They made most of their money on dial-up subscriptions in an era when most households did not have DSL or other wideband capability. As hard as it is to imagine, there are still people who access the internet with dial-up modems. That remains a revenue stream for AOL.

When you have such a nice revenue stream, it's hard to focus on developing another. Witness Kodak, inventors of the digital camera who could not bring themselves to truly develop something that would diminish their main revenue source.

Posted by incubus on August 12, 2012 (03:22PM)

IMO, the writing is on the wall, what makes FB tick isn't unique, it's something that Google, AOL, AMZN and YAHOO already have the capacity to offer.

I agree on the reasons for AOL downfall over the last decade, my point goes to the lack of insight in AOL's decision to cut it's social network, it had a labyrinth of chats and message boards.

AOL members could see alive list of friends were online at any given moment and IM them live, they could immediately go into chat rooms of peers on topics ranging from lifestyle to profession/vocation.

Considering what FB has done for data mining/target marketing with considerably less resources, AOL could have pulled in immense revenues by focusing on offering vendor services for specific market demographics on their network.

Think AMZN meets FB - AOL could have combined the demographic marketing power of social networking with the consumer choice of AMZN.

My opinion for this space, Yahoo's Marissa Mayer is savvy, I wager she's got the common sense to see this and utilize YHOO's resources to build the social aspects in conjunction with the marketing power of the internet.

Posted by treeHamster on August 12, 2012 (07:57PM)

AOL IM was big in the US but with the rest of the world, MSN messenger (bought out by Microsoft, now called Windows Messenger) was the primary holder. However, I do remember before FB was available outside the prestige circle, AIM was the mainstay communications standard of the American youth (this was before the rise of texting in the second half of the last decade, circa 2006/2007).

Posted by Phong on August 13, 2012 (11:07PM)

I honestly value FB at probably only 10$ per share. Even at that price there market cap is still pretty hefty. We have to wait and see. I honestly see the stock going lower then 20$ right now. I use Facebook to every so often and I can say the amount of people that use it has declined a bit.

Posted by Janosik on August 14, 2012 (12:06AM)

incubus said:
Janosik said: Incy, I still can't believe AOL is around. I'm perplexed.
Ten years ago they were a major contender for internet search, 2nd to Google.

They were also the #1 "social network", with a vast array of chat rooms, message boards and educational forums on a wide variety of topics and lifestyles.

Then, they downsized, eliminating a lot of their social functionality - a stupid, stupid move, now we see "social networking" sites popping up all over the place.

At a glance, it looks like AOL has been moving to get back to where they were, now that they realize they dropped the ball at a time they'd have secured the dominant spot for this industry had they simply stayed the course.

Very true, they should have stuck with the social networking aspect. I frequented their chat rooms quite a bit when they were peaking (I guess peaking?). Relying on being a dial-up ISP access provider took too much of their focus, and they didn't evolve fast enough. If they're providing better content, then maybe there's hope for them.

Posted by spshapiro on August 14, 2012 (09:07AM)

If the pressure stays on FB before the lock up comes off, it is quite possible that the stock will rise after the actual release of the additional shares. It wouldn’t be the first time, the public got it wrong.

Posted by incubus on August 14, 2012 (10:11AM)

Shap, I think it's safe to say the public already got this one wrong.

A thing I've noticed, in both fundamental and T/A traders, a strange thing -

While they'll crunch numbers, look at P/E's, PEG's and a plethora of other numeric ratio's, spend hours scrutinizing earnings reports look at debt, cash and all kinds of paperwork....it surprises me how few actually invoke street sense.

T/A guys have the same propensity, they seem to want some magical pattern or indicator make decisions for them.

It surprises me you got into FB, you always struck me as the "street" type.

I won't make a bold prediction they go under, but FB never struck me as a solid investment, not when I looked at the competition and what FB really has to offer.

Posted by Parker51 on August 16, 2012 (07:30PM)

I picked up a little bit when it went under $20, and may pick up a little more if it goes significantly lower, but it certainly seems speculative. I think it *could* turn around and go up considerably, if FB has the wherewithal to make some changes their user base won't like---like taking advantage of the potential market value of all that data they have and adding some more sources of revenue.

Their users don't have to like it, they just have to not dislike it strongly enough to leave in large numbers. It's going to be a bit of delicate work, but I think it has enough potential to gamble on with a *small* slice of the overall portfolio.

Posted by NASDAQsavages on August 16, 2012 (08:51PM)

I dont invest money, such as should be the case, in my mind when buying or selling stocks. For any trade there is a dirivative for that. But anyway..

While CNBC was on today I heard about FB all day, I was thinking what would be the best way to build a position for an investment in this name. Well first of all I think $19.00 is your stop loss. If this name blows through the 50 percent sale mark get out of there. But this is what I would look to do.

Buy a peice of my FB position (maybe 20 - 25%)

Buy a Put Spread on the name.

Buy OTM calls on the otherside

Buy the amount of options respective to your planned stock position.

I havent looked at FB options and have no idea how they trade or where there greeks are at. So I would look at all that when assessing experies and strikes.

Im pretty sure this strategy has name.. But i dont know it. Looks like a wierd strangle?

This is just how I would get into the name if I wanted to

Posted by bobbygee on August 16, 2012 (10:28PM)

I am not sure Zuck knows how to make money. Maybe he should go back to Harvard and work on his thesis some more. When they add the advertising component and the link to the products that users endorse at discounts with coupons and MLM. Then we will see the Facebook Phenomena Rock! I like FB at 12 going to dollar cost avg. in now.

Posted by spshapiro on August 17, 2012 (05:46AM)

Obviously my thought that the pressure on this stock due to the lockup was built in prior to the event, was totally wrong. Fortunately I didn’t have a lot riding on it, but I wanted to give you your due, Inky.

Posted by treeHamster on August 17, 2012 (10:54AM)

Haha I got some 19 puts yesterday. They dropped through the day but got some more at the open and am about to sell them for an ok profit.

Posted by SimpleTrades on November 04, 2012 (01:48PM)

Facebook Inc. (FB) executives including Sheryl Sandberg have sold a portion of their stock in the social site as restrictions on insider sales at the company have lapsed, according to filings with the Securities & Exchange Commission."

Facebook Executives Sell as Lock-ups Expire

What's your price on FB

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