So who is buying put options before Apple earnings.

Posted by Midneo on April 18, 2012 (06:06PM)

Hello trade king, apple earnings are coming out very soon and i would like to get you're perspective on Apple earnings expectations. Now I will personally buy put options if the price is right the day before earnings but before I tell you what level I'm looking for. I would like to get you're perspectives
 on this call according to Goldman Sachs we should all go buy it, and they are always correct right and never steel money from the small investor right...?

Buy apple before earnings.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-18/apple-shares-a-buy-at-goldman-amid-very-big-year-.html 

Now I'm not stating you should go buy put options because as new investors or traders it is always a gamble to play earnings, specially on a stock like apple but as long term investor i can set aside a few dollars for this put option call, which i don't recommend investing in options but if its gets to the right price and level I will short apple because my long prospects for apple are still low it should be around the 500 levels at the end of the 2 quarter but me expectation can change depending at how the overall economy well do. In this world there nothing of a sure thing but you can planned strategy to give the most optimal profit.? 

Posted by spshapiro on April 19, 2012 (07:19AM)

On Monday morning, before the open I placed an order to sell this Friday’s 580p for 8.2. Apple had traded down for four days and it looked like the open would be down as well. I believe it had closed on Friday (the 13th) at 605 and the fall to 580 from a high, from the prior week of around 633, looked like 8%. It appeared to be much about nothing to wet one’s pants. In other words, I’ve picked up over the years that you could die waiting for an expected correction, and to jump in on that correction before it happens is part of the Western version of the code of Bushido. As it was, I was exercised and in fact the option closed the day over 10.  (BTW, at that point it was still not in the money.) The next morning it opened ITM, but I was going to see the Van Gogh exhibit so I put in an offer to buy back the option at 3.35. During the day before, there was a point that I could have covered in the high 4’s, and I was tempted, but AAPL is so volatile that I thought I would let it ride, and of course as I said it closed north of 10.  As it was, the exhibit was well worth the time, but obviously, I left some money on the table; the option closed the day below 1, and I covered in the middle of the tour. But I captured 60% of the premium from the day before, and that is not the worst trade I’ve ever done. It is the fourth time that I have sold and covered a Put on Apple since last October. So Mid, do you want to help out an old man again?    

Posted by doougle on April 19, 2012 (08:03AM)

What is known is that the IV is very high.  Almost twice as high as normal.  So whatever I do, I'll be selling volatility.
Due to the increased IV, I was able to leg into a May iron condor with puts at 490 and calls at 710.  I collected a little over 1.00 on 5.00 wide spreads.
I might try something similar on the weeklies that open today.

Posted by treeHamster on April 19, 2012 (01:02PM)

I WAS planning on doing it until I just looked at the price of the contracts and decided not to unless there is a decent IV drop by Monday close. Right now there $550's are priced at $5.75 and AAPL is $596.64. That's a 10% move and I can't justify buying that.

I might remind you that I made most of my AAPL money AFTER earnings and on the upswing it took.

Posted by papermaker67 on April 19, 2012 (01:04PM)


May bull put spread 560/540

Posted by Midneo on April 19, 2012 (01:08PM)

That a interesting strategy dougle i might just follow u on that but i don't know I have to see the price action the day before because its a extremely difficult call to make, I can only predict one or two moves ahead of institutions thought volatility on a stock is my specialty know in it is much of a gamble then a strategy. If the price is right i will buy puts but what i think is going to happen is that they are going to dump the stock like i said before earnings and then pick it up to gap fill and then let it ride down. if that's the case i will wait until earnings comes out and wait for the double top or if the price is right around the 615 -620 I will buy puts. We have to see how apple holds next week, I have to check the price action on Monday and then i give you guys my call and right chart patterns form i will sure take on that gamble but for rightnow I'm looking to buying puts.

Posted by Datsik128 on April 19, 2012 (04:01PM)

I sold out of my put position at 587 and change. Too good a one-day return to pass up. Unless an irresistible entry-point presents itself, I'll probably wait until after earnings to play AAPL again. I hate getting jammed pre-earnings.

Posted by snowman on April 22, 2012 (01:50AM)

Google up before earnings, reports good profits, down?
The king IBM up big also before earnings, reports alright profits, down?
The Queen Apple takes a 11% dump before earnings, ?
News tries to implicate miss!
This looks like a page out of Eddy's play book SHLD.
Only difference, this is no bum on skid row.
$11.00 profit report on earnings which will give AAPL a minimum $70 bump up in price from $573 and my target for the day $670 Wednesday.
I probably will not play it!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I just see some losing trades posted here and I want to give you fair warning.
Notice the bear flag set up on SPY yet DOW and MDY flat with SPY heading down. Believe what you want but SPY is the leader of the whole market period. Just match it up to Wilshire 5000 and you will see it. So when SPY dumps end of day, it usually means a down day OR a (bear trap). SPY's last two signals like this, it dumped, the next day. The other thing is they could of easily kept it above 138 if they wanted so those 370 thousand puts would not be able to exercise. Monday could see a play down and end up even, but Tuesday is Ben's day with an AAPL in his pocket. So I would not even bet on Monday being down. But if my guess is right they will make things look bad before they plan the funeral arrangements for the the shorts on Tuesday.
Of course I could be wrong about this whole thing, you all know I have been wrong all last year. I am not trying to get anyone to buy calls. I am just saying stand down. My guess here is the QQQ's have to make room for Facebook and the S&P 500 has to reduce their position also in AAPL.4.37% right now. The only way the institutions can dump is into strength and they need to create that frenzy before the final offload of everything they can. So do not think I am offering AAPL here as a buy and hold either.

Posted by Midneo on April 23, 2012 (02:03AM)

I'm with you snowman i can't argue with that i can't recommend anyone to buy or sell as well I will just be basically gambling but i do hope apple comes out with solid earnings, I don't like to short the markets.

Posted by snowman on April 23, 2012 (05:51PM)

My indicators tomorrow Tues. on SPY show it going down. Yet there was a large volume on the 136 calls. Not sure if that is selling or buying? After AAPL is out with earnings and the FED meeting  on Tues, I will feel safe enough to short the market. Spain is down 3% every day. The rest of Europe has been hit hard and I wonder exactly what apple has invested it cash over in Europe in (50 billion). Looks like there is no place to hide over there.

Posted by snowman on April 23, 2012 (08:38PM)

You know I never thought to look at options on XLK, 19% of it is AAPL. Well there was a large put position taken out today on June 29 puts 2331, they could have been sold, yet that seems unlikely since the SPY is heading down and June is a ways off. Does not seem to be part of a spread either. Sometimes people who short a stock use options as cover yet that seems unlikely also. Just looking at those options June and May I would say that XLK is going down (using my indicators on price). Which would mean AAPL stays even or goes down. So I am saying my previous prediction AAPL up 70 after earnings is looking less probable.

Posted by made to trade on April 23, 2012 (08:42PM)


snowman said: You know I never thought to look at options on XLK, 19% of it is AAPL. Well there was a large put position taken out today on June 29 puts 2331, they could have been sold, yet that seems unlikely since the SPY is heading down and June is a ways off. Does not seem to be part of a spread either. Sometimes people who short a stock use options as cover yet that seems unlikely also. Just looking at those options June and May I would say that XLK is going down (using my indicators on price). Which would mean AAPL stays even or goes down. So I am saying my previous prediction AAPL up 70 after earnings is looking less probable.

 Hope your earlier prediction is wrong because I'm short weekly calls from 630-655.  And 575+70 means I lose some money.

Posted by Midneo on April 24, 2012 (01:11AM)

Actually Snow Men I think you are correct on you're assumption I'm expecting for apple to reach those 640 levels once again but then again i could be wrong. Rightnow i have no idea where the markets are going to head but we have to wait for apple earnings after that i can give you my predictions but for now is just a gamble. 

Posted by snowman on April 28, 2012 (12:16AM)

Well if history is any indicator AAPL goes up next week.

Posted by Midneo on April 28, 2012 (06:12PM)

I completely agree with you. I'm looking to buy some call options on Tuesday.

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