What's the criteriea for picking your stock...
Is that a stock or a verb?OldFart said: IBM
Buffet says "Buy, buy, buy"The Otter Way said:
Is that a stock or a verb?OldFart said: IBM
Buffet has more money to average down on... No way that I'm buying except puts..OldFart said:
Buffet says "Buy, buy, buy"The Otter Way said:
Is that a stock or a verb?OldFart said: IBM
Pat, as a day trade your buying puts may work, although a quick look at the options chain leads me to believe that you better stick to the just ITM for the near term options (the OTM are still losers on the day.) However, for a longer time period, selling the put and holding on even when exercised, may be the better course. If I was to bet on IBM a year from now, I’d be inclined to take the over. BTW, I’m a poor man and so I’m trying to sell ADP puts today, not IBM.
OF, I would think that the next swing to the upside might well be proceeded by a day, or two, of greater volume.
buying deep itm puts January... 2k in day trade today.. using CAT / SPY bouncing between calls and puts as they adjust...spshapiro said:
Pat, as a day trade your buying puts may work, although a quick look at the options chain leads me to believe that you better stick to the just ITM for the near term options (the OTM are still losers on the day.) However, for a longer time period, selling the put and holding on even when exercised, may be the better course. If I was to bet on IBM a year from now, I’d be inclined to take the over. BTW, I’m a poor man and so I’m trying to sell ADP puts today, not IBM.
OF, I would think that the next swing to the upside might well be proceeded by a day, or two, of greater volume.
GRMN, not around in 1999 (introduced in Dec 2000) is also at a higher level than the early days.
Also... INTU, AMT and AMSWA are at higher levels than 1999 when adjusted for splits and dividends.
SP... you set the bar pretty high there picking the tech highs of 1999.
Still ...when you add AAPL and IBM the list is rather short.
Thank you for the backstory Otter, always wondered about you. I too dream of building an empire. Wish I could share my tactics and strategies, however they change daily as I learn more.
As always, good luck and play safe
Very true, I meant the short term price movements though. As a value investor, I just mean looking for a good entry point for stocks I already like. So for example, if on a day of significant sell offs in the market, a few stocks that outsold the overall market might be worth evaluating to see whether it is justified. If I can't see any reason why, I buy.spshapiro said: Be aware that these ‘loser’ stocks can stay depressed far longer than one might think. Other than AAPL I’m hard pressed to think of the tech stock that has exceeded its high of 1999. Although I have made some money selling their options, I’m still waiting on CSCO, INTC, AMAT, and even ORCL, to return to those levels.
I'm a buy and hold value investor. I look for companies that have a surplus of cash to long term debt, and show growth over the past three years. If a company doesn't meet those basic criteria, there has to be something else to it (like a BAC potential turnaround).
I prefer PEs under 30, but have strayed above this at times.
I look at the overall picture of how the company is doing in its space, what its competition looks like, etc.
I like dividend yields above 3.5 but I am not too picky here.
Mostly I try to buy stocks of solid companies that have taken a beating, and if the price drops more, I average down. I intentionally put some money in now, then wait for another dip to put more in.
I tend to diversify across many industries, sizes, countries, etc, keeping each equity to about 8-10% of my portfolio, 15 if I have a lot of faith in it, but 5 or less if it's speculative.
Currently I hold
NLY and AGNC (I will divide these 50/50 for a total of 15-20%)
ABV
KKR
Sbux
Ebay
Sape
IAU
NG
BIDU (my only stinker...bought when it was way overvalued)
VWO
NDN
BAC
Cheers!
I like to trade the high dividend Reits when the VIX is low. It usually presents a low buy in right after ex-dividend date and then keep the stock until a few days before the next ex-dividend date. When the VIX is low and the stock is following the cyclical, predictable path, I usually pick up 8 - 10% yield (sometimes a little more). NLY was displaying this earlier this year. Then it started getting real erratic.spshapiro said: NLY is a REIT, which I have occasionally watched, and PDLI appears to be a royalty trust based on drug patents (I am wholly ignorant of this stock). Although they can spill off some nice dividends, they are not generally much in the way of a business which will grow over time. In other words you wouldn’t buy into them thinking that they will grow their dividend over time, or yield much in stock appreciation. I have found that stocks like these often have a cyclical pattern and one can profit from that. One name that I have used is NRT which is a natural gas royalty trust. But the point here is these are fine for picking up some extra dividend returns at the margin, but I would be wary about using them as the core of my portfolio. Often when the underlying industry falls out of favor the stock loses more than the dividend can make up. I will concede that big pharma, which I am heavily invested in, has been out of favor for some time, but when it returns to favor capital gain returns of several hundred percent are not uncommon, and the dividends are greater than the norm, and the options are far more liquid.
Unfortunately these stocks will not grow much if at all and from what I understand, the worst characteristic is if the FED decides to start raising interests rates which shave off profitability and therefore dividends are smaller which impacts share prices.
Shorting the Euro by buying calls on EUO has been profitable - I am concerned that this kick the can down the road attitude the ECB has taken will curtail profitability.
I was also trading commodity ETF's like copper and grain but I was too quick to pull the trigger. I think we are getting closer to a larger pull back for early next year.
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