3% Swings....

Posted by The Otter Way on November 09, 2011 (10:39AM)

With the volatility being so high, it is almost comical at the ease of playing this market.  The problem is we now have a Bigger Problem.  I enclose a comment from one of my advisers...


From BetterStocks....

The day of reckoning is here. Despite the supposed resignation of Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, the Italian bond yields have blown past the 7% level. This 7% borrowing level for Italian bonds have been the level that most experts believe the 8th largest economy in the world, Italy can no longer operate.

This is what all the worries about the Greek default were all about. The real worries were the contagion spreading from Greece to Italy but now here we are. The ECB has already stepped in and purchased well over 100 billion dollars worth of Italian bonds in an attempt to keep these yields down but none of this has helped.

All we can say is this dwarfs the 2008 financial crisis in the U.S. so let's hope the worlds politicians realize how dire this situation is for our globally connected markets. If this gets even more out of control we can expect to see some banks blow up, more countries go default and potentially the freezing up of global financial systems once again.

--------------------
So be careful, what you think is a bargain may yet still have a blue light special in the coming weeks.

Posted by OldFart on November 09, 2011 (11:59AM)

I have been wrong before - so nothing new here but the VIX futures are in contango even today which in general is bullish

And I agree with the thoughts you posted above but I think it will take 2-3 PMs and Governments in each of the troubled counties until the citizens accept the harsh reality or go the Iceland's way. It will take some time like the TBTF banks here, we are kicking the can down the road three years. There will be a reckoning some day ...

Posted by DougTheHed on November 09, 2011 (11:41PM)

in general i agree, but until we get a breakdown of the 1,220 level i am going to continue to buy dips.

but we are getting close to this thing coming to a head. luckily so far the profits from the rips should offset any move breaking that support. after that 1220 breakdown we could have a substantial air pocket drop.

I will be hanging out on the sidelines for a while. 

Posted by The Otter Way on November 11, 2011 (12:37PM)

It looks like everyone is starting to catch on to the program.  We now see the early morning volume lead to the top of any trading range... followed by a slow sell off.  I am hoping that VIX settles above 30 because I like these swings. 

Again, I see no conviction on any volume... and I am enjoying the power of options on some swing trades over the last couple of days.  Cat was good to me as well as Arun and SWC.  I have limited myself to buying puts at channel high...  I stayed away from Cat today.. although the 100 put was/is tempting...

Good luck to all... Taking the rest of the day off!  I've worked too hard and need a break...  Because these have been manual trades and it takes a lot of of me.  I guess I should write another Bot.. but options are so dangerous to automate!

Posted by treeHamster on November 11, 2011 (02:37PM)

I love 3% swings. I just hit my BEST return ever. Bought 605 Google calls this morning for $0.35 each and they're gonna hit 2000% because of a 2.5% swing. Gotta love weeklies. I'm never gonna beat this return rate ever again.

Posted by The Otter Way on November 16, 2011 (02:16PM)

Love, love, love.... Did I say LOVE... this market!  Been playing CAT puts all day...

Posted by OldFart on November 16, 2011 (02:27PM)

Did you say love? To be fair the swings are < 2% these days and with opex this Friday usually the volatility fizzles. Of course if the new Italian PM decides to do a referendum, all bets are off ...

Posted by The Otter Way on November 17, 2011 (01:22PM)

Well, I think we get to swing again, and again, and again.... Did I say SWING again?

Posted by incubus on November 17, 2011 (01:40PM)

It probably goes without saying, I'm lovin' it.

Posted by incubus on November 17, 2011 (01:42PM)

OldFart said: Did you say love? To be fair the swings are < 2% these days and with opex this Friday usually the volatility fizzles. Of course if the new Italian PM decides to do a referendum, all bets are off ...

 "Technocrats" OF, the switch from empty suits who lie to the public while padding their pockets to political leaders with backgrounds in economics.

America could be so lucky.

Posted by treeHamster on November 17, 2011 (02:05PM)

I have a background in electromagnetics and communications systems but I can still make money. They're just equations and patterns. Play enough puzzle games and you get used to recognizing patterns and practice your math and you can get used to the equations. Anybody can win in the stock market, most people just don't want to put that kind of time in.

Posted by incubus on November 17, 2011 (02:31PM)

25 years ago, I knew a lot more than I know now.

Posted by The Otter Way on November 17, 2011 (02:35PM)

treeHamster said: I have a background in electromagnetics and communications systems but I can still make money. They're just equations and patterns. Play enough puzzle games and you get used to recognizing patterns and practice your math and you can get used to the equations. Anybody can win in the stock market, most people just don't want to put that kind of time in.

 Amen... a pattern... is a pattern... is a pattern....

Posted by spshapiro on November 17, 2011 (02:37PM)

Ah, Ms. Patricia Stein

Posted by incubus on November 17, 2011 (02:48PM)

I have utilized a combination of quantum physics and Freudian psychology to derive what I call the "Juggling clown" pattern.

When this pattern appears, in accordance with the Heisenberg uncertainty principle, it provides absolute and conclusive evidence that the market will be going up, or down.

Posted by spshapiro on November 17, 2011 (04:38PM)

unless it stays the same.

Posted by incubus on November 17, 2011 (05:33PM)

Curses, my diabolical quant plot, foiled!

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