A play on the ‘ash’ scenario

Posted by spshapiro on April 19, 2010 (08:37AM)

  Here’s an idea for some of you who are qualified to sell naked puts.  With the threat of  the inhibition of air travel, there could well be pressure on Boeing’s stock (BA).  Now if you think this is an end of the world story, you could short the stock.  I guess you could short if  you were nimble or willing to be satisfied with a small quick gain, but that’s not me.  If you believe that there will be a reaction that says something like, the lack of air traffic will pressure the airlines, who will in turn order or cancel plane deliveries, therefore BA will fall, but you think that this will resolve itself by summer when air traffic picks up, then you might want to sell a put or two on BA.

Posted by spshapiro on April 19, 2010 (10:09AM)

  Obviously, my analysis of where BA would open was flawed.  Perhaps I’m not quite the deep thinker that I pretend to be;  maybe I should give more credence to my wife when she says that “I’m only a legend in my own mind.” Nah, the heck with Xanthippe.

Posted by OldFart on April 19, 2010 (10:48AM)

Maybe some kind of a pairs trade - short the European airlines trading here - British Aerospace, Lufthansa and Air France and long US based airlines

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