BRK.B

Posted by closer on February 22, 2010 (07:09PM)

Buy & hold or buy some more?
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Posted by 47 on February 22, 2010 (07:18PM)

I'm waiting for it to take an irrational sell off before entering.  All it takes is one article questioning Munger/Buffet's health (though may they remain in good health for a long time!), and there could be a large exit.  At which point I will probably enter.  

Posted by closer on February 22, 2010 (08:25PM)

You may have miss that it just droped 4.00 before being put on S&P

Posted by RuleStock on February 22, 2010 (11:21PM)

I actually added to my position last week and am thinking about adding further.  This stock represents about 8% of my portfolio and I will probably buy another 2%.  I think the shares are worth $90+ and my cost avg is in the low $70's.  I say anything $80 and under is a good buy.
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Posted by Owl on February 23, 2010 (01:00PM)

47 said: I'm waiting for it to take an irrational sell off before entering.  All it takes is one article questioning Munger/Buffet's health (though may they remain in good health for a long time!), and there could be a large exit.  At which point I will probably enter.  

As far as I know, they're in good health, but old. I would be worried about what happens when they die. I think the company will go on profiting, but the stock will likely take a dive. I'd want to get in after, rather than before that event.
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Posted by Owl on February 23, 2010 (01:01PM)

RuleStock said: I actually added to my position last week and am thinking about adding further.  This stock represents about 8% of my portfolio and I will probably buy another 2%.  I think the shares are worth $90+ and my cost avg is in the low $70's.  I say anything $80 and under is a good buy.

Could you explain your valuation method?
Don't get me wrong, I love Buffett; I'm just curious as to where the $90 estimate comes from.
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Posted by 47 on February 23, 2010 (03:04PM)

Owl said:

47 said: I'm waiting for it to take an irrational sell off before entering.  All it takes is one article questioning Munger/Buffet's health (though may they remain in good health for a long time!), and there could be a large exit.  At which point I will probably enter.  

As far as I know, they're in good health, but old. I would be worried about what happens when they die. I think the company will go on profiting, but the stock will likely take a dive. I'd want to get in after, rather than before that event.
 I'm somewhat embarrassed to admit that this will be my entry point.  It seems crude to think that way, but I think the stock will become irrationally undervalued after one of their passings.  Given their age, and with the split of BRK.B, such emotional reactions are even more likely to me. 

I greatly admire both of them, so I hope this doesn't happen for a long time, but I believe the company will continue in its tradition after they leave.  I suspect the markets will disagree, and thus I will buy when others sell. 

Posted by wadofglue on February 23, 2010 (03:10PM)

On valuation topic- does Morningstar use discounted cash flow?  Or, does anyone around here listen to what they say?
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Posted by 47 on February 23, 2010 (03:40PM)

wadofglue said: On valuation topic- does Morningstar use discounted cash flow?  Or, does anyone around here listen to what they say?

 Yes, but they (obviously) don't publicize the details of their models (they do, however, provide some insight on some of the more important assumptions and sensitivities surrounding them, which I find to be extremely useful).  I've been using the trial of their premium service and actually really found their research to be extremely valuable.  I use it to complement my own valuation/DCF models, and find them to be a good supplementary resource.  Not to mention I find their framework of analysis very compelling. 

In general, I would suggest trying the free premium subscription so you can get a sense of how they format their reports and what kind of information they provide.  It's a hefty investment (160 for the full year), but I'm beginning to think its worthwhile for me personally. 

Posted by wadofglue on February 23, 2010 (06:38PM)

Thanks 47 I was just wondering what their principle pricing model is.  I figured from some of their numbers today they were using was binomial but wanted to know what their general practice was. 

I have a subscription through my university's library.

Posted by closer on February 28, 2010 (01:00AM)

As the norm warren had good earnings
What will monday hold
UP
DOWN
I say up 2+ dollars I think it will close around 82.00

Posted by closer on March 01, 2010 (04:11PM)

Bummer Missed it by .9 cents

Posted by closer on March 01, 2010 (07:24PM)

Funny after hrs it closed at 82.00

Posted by closer on March 03, 2010 (05:58PM)

Did anyone get on board? It has had a up an down run.

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