The 500.00 Challange... Can u win? Let's see what you come up with...

Posted by The Otter Way on November 21, 2009 (04:15PM)

Who can win this weeks $500 dollar Challenge… You will need to post your selections and your proposed entry points to this topic no later than Market open this Monday… Entry point must concide with lows and highs of the day…Winners will be judged by the highest possible return for their selections, but the return will be judged by market price at closethe following Monday. 

Winners will be declared the… General Forum Winner Contest #1… That and two dimes might buy you some gum… You can paper trade… It does not need to be live and reckless.

It will be interesting to see who can generate the highest returns in this time frame... It might also be nice to share your thoughts about the reasons for selecting the stock or option to play...

You are limited to 1 single buy-in... You must enter the market no later than this monday's close...You are not allowed any sells during this period of time...and you can not close the position until market close the following monday... 

Anybody want to Play?
Owl001_thumb Brokerage Account

Posted by Owl on November 21, 2009 (10:15PM)

Otter, I don't understand this part of the rules:

The Otter Way said: You will need to post your selections and your proposed entry points to this topic no later than Market open this Monday… Entry point must concide with lows and highs of the day…

How do you determine what the entry point is? Do I get to assume that I would have gotten the best price of the day? (I'm not going to actually make a trade.) Or do I assume I got the worst price of the day? Or something else?
Owl001_thumb Brokerage Account

Posted by Owl on November 21, 2009 (10:23PM)

Also, are you going to count commission costs?

Posted by OldFart on November 21, 2009 (10:25PM)

How do you measure return - in $ or in %?

Posted by The Otter Way on November 21, 2009 (11:16PM)

Dollars gained... $ value of stock or options at the end of one week....(close of market next monday).. by posting your entry price before the market opens... you are saying in advance what the entry price will be (hope) and hope your order (paper) would have been taken...

of course.... you could be out of the game on Monday if your entry price is so low that it would not have filled on Monday...

because you place your bet before opening... we all can see the results...

Because we are dealing in $500... we won't go back to check if a $500 order was ever accepted at that price... 

Good luck....
Owl001_thumb Brokerage Account

Posted by Owl on November 22, 2009 (01:51AM)

This is my entry: MGM XJ for $.05. That's the Dec. expiration puts, strike price $7, for MGM. If we're ignoring commissions, that would be 100 contracts. I'll explain my rationale later, but I definitely do not recommend this as an actual trade. It will most likely go to 0.

Posted by BeretDude on November 22, 2009 (06:37AM)

RINO..  entering @  27.5


Happy Trading.. /:)

Posted by TampaJake on November 22, 2009 (01:04PM)

I will take 2 ea FRO XY (Frontline LTD ) Dec 27.50 puts at $2.40  ($486.25 including commissions)

Otter, are we including commissions? I think we should. We would have to in real life trading.

Posted by The Otter Way on November 22, 2009 (01:09PM)

My choice is 10 contracts for kkq eu for .50   ... That's onty May 2010 call with strike price of 7.50... Because commision does not come into play... I played contracts on options... I also believe on Thursday... Onty will announce some headway to partnering on it's pipeline...

Good luck to all... I also put in the price of .50 in hopes the contract will acted upon... Although I do belive that it might have droped to .45 for entry... 

Posted by spshapiro on November 22, 2009 (02:39PM)

 3 KKQQA @ 1.65, "all for you, Mrs. Gray"

Posted by jdenys on November 22, 2009 (09:15PM)

4 GCZ LM @1.25

Posted by El Dorado on November 22, 2009 (09:54PM)

4 DLY BP @ 125
A paper trade, don’t have cash available, and just a hunch they got hit a little hard on Friday (and probably wrong, I’m terrible at short term picks).

Posted by The Otter Way on November 22, 2009 (10:59PM)

Good luck to all... No commission or contract fee's... Look at it as Trade King giving a Christmas Present on Paper... If you're read'n there TK... one free trade in December would be a great present... You don't even have to wrap mine...

I hope your bids will get you in the game... I think I will call the prize Trade King or (Queen) Trader for a Week... 

Posted by Go White Sox on November 22, 2009 (11:53PM)

one AGJ LH...ERX 40 Dec call at 4.95 It's now at 5.50 will drop into range by mid day.

Posted by YoungPunk on November 23, 2009 (12:04AM)

BP @ 56.60. I think it might be more of a 10 day trade though instead of 7. We'll see though
Owl001_thumb Brokerage Account

Posted by Owl on November 23, 2009 (09:51AM)

Owl said: This is my entry: MGM XJ for $.05. That's the Dec. expiration puts, strike price $7, for MGM. If we're ignoring commissions, that would be 100 contracts. I'll explain my rationale later, but I definitely do not recommend this as an actual trade. It will most likely go to 0.

This is my rationale. First, I think the 1-week price move of almost anything is basically random and unpredictable. One can just flip a coin to predict the direction of the market. However, one can predict which things will probably have the largest percentage moves. So the best one can do by way of trying to win this contest is to pick something that is likely to have a large percentage move. So if you get lucky and the market moves in the direction that you guessed, then you probably win the contest.

I know that (some) options are extremely volatile, and I figured a 5-cent option would be most likely to change to either 0 or 10 cents over the course of a week, for either a 100% loss or a 100% gain. I picked MGM because it is the highest-beta stock I could find that has options. (AIG was the other one I considered.) I went with December expiration, and the $7 strike price, all to maximize volatility.

That said, I anticipate that it is most likely this thing goes to 0, rather than .10.

Posted by buynhold on November 23, 2009 (11:03AM)

I'll take 3 TRA XM at 1.45.  That gives me $65 left over, which I will invest in my neighbor boy's lawn-raking service. I'll tell you what that returns next Monday!

Posted by Go White Sox on November 23, 2009 (11:08AM)

I agree with you Owl.

 That's why I went with an etf in energy. But it look's like it isn't going to fall into my buy range.That contract is now going for $ 7.40.  I couldn't but it because the limit was $500 or less. Even though the bid was under $5 at the close on Friday.



Posted by TampaJake on November 23, 2009 (11:14AM)

TampaJake said: I will take 2 ea FRO XY (Frontline LTD ) Dec 27.50 puts at $2.40  ($486.25 including commissions)

Otter, are we including commissions? I think we should. We would have to in real life trading.

 Picked this because of earnings announcement on Friday a.m. If earnings are as dismal as some analysts expect this should drop significantly.

Posted by The Otter Way on November 23, 2009 (11:24AM)

Don't worry about commissions.... this is paper... we might open a 45 day live contest ... then everything matters....

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