Need advice on this option?????????????

anyone???????

From Interactive Brokers Options Intelligence Report

UNG – United States Natural Gas ETF – Shares of the natural gas exchange-traded fund have slipped 4.4% lower today to reach a 5-year low of $10.64. Despite the present weakness in UNG, one investor was seen making far-term bullish bets on the fund by targeting the April 2010 contract. It appears that the trader established a bullish reversal play by shedding 3,000 puts at the April 10 strike for 1.85 apiece in order to purchase 3,000 calls at the higher April 11 strike for 1.82 each. The trader receives a net credit of 3 pennies per contract and has positioned himself to add to his gains if shares rally higher than $11.00 by expiration. The short put position indicates that the investor is happy to have shares put to him at an effective price of $8.15 in the event that the put options land in-the-money by expiration. Shares need only remain higher than $10.00 for this individual to retain the 3 cent credit indefinitely.

Do you consider something that has a 60% chance of making money to be a good investment?

Just search for option prices and implied volatility. You should find a lot of information on it.

The delta is now 42.2 (quite low) and the price dropped to $1.70 on the ask. (2:00 pm)

UNG hit an all time low on 9/7/2008 and has been declining ever since. I would not put a call option on anything that was lower in Mar 09 than it was in Nov 08, since I believe this shows weakness.
Why try to buck the trend? I have in the past and more often than not I would get burned.

If you have $186 to gamble and wouldn't miss the money, that is one thing, but it is a gamble. Some pay off, many do not.
Looking at the option though you are definitely not alone. A lot of open interest on both sides.

If I was going to buy the Jan 11 call option, I would buy the $8 or $9 strike and probably
sell it when the stock price hit $12 (if if ever does). Put the 50 day SMA on the chart and I think you will see why.